1993 in Kiev?

The Ukraine, judging from acting messages, gets into situation, painfully reminding crisis of September-October, 1993 in Moscow.

Just judge by yourself: in both cases a source of the conflict are the contradiction between the Presidents and Parliaments (the Supreme body in Russia, the Supreme Rada in the Ukraine), aggravation of these contradictions in both cases is connected with formation in Parliament of the constitutional majority hostile to the president.

Both B.Eltsin of 1993 and today's V.Jushchenko embody neoliberal westernized (more precisely - pro-American) policy while the parliamentary majority - both in the Supreme body and in the Supreme Rada - is disposed on moderately left wave and tries to resist to a violent westernisation of the country.

In both cases elites are split across (contradictions between regions) and on a vertical (struggle between departments).

Both in Russia of 1993 and in today's Ukraine both parties of the conflict appeal to the street and try to draw power structures over.

Schemes of the development of conflicts are amazingly similar (almost a tracing-paper):

- the first stage - the decree of the President about dissolution of the Parliament and assignation of the prescheduled elections;

- the second stage - the Parliament makes decision on illegality of the Decree and appeals to the Constitutional court;

- the third stage - mobilization of forces of contradictory parties and formation of the first street centers of intensity;

 - the fourth stage - futile negotiations and escalation of mutual threats;

- the fifth stage - judgment of the Constitutional court and new aggravation of the conflict (irrespective of the character of the decision).

Review of forces of political opponents and first street collisions should have passes logically after the judgment of the Constitutional court...

To form further forecast, to tell you the truth, would not be desirable! Such succession of events is fraught with a tragic outcome. It's absolutely clear that if Jushchenko's supporters will receive direct all-round help from the USA and their allies while Russia as it used to happen before "will hesitate" to support openly Janukovich's party, the Ukraine risks to test all the lures of "shock therapy" starting from execution of the Parliament to the mad experiments of liberal economists being manipulated by the American councilors.

At the time we, Russians, should wait in this case full and final loss of the Black Sea fleet and appearance of frankly hostile to us state on southwest border of Russia.

Hopes of some political scientists on the presence of large number of supporters of Janukovich, economic power of east regions of the Ukraine and the United States being busy with conflicts on the Near and Middle East - are groundless.

The main force is situated in the capital, in this very case - in Kiev. At the time Juschenko's supporters dominate in Kiev. Power structures, apparently, side the President. The USA as it is shown by the experience, have enough forces and means for carrying out of active policy worldwide.

Only active policy of Russia can tip the balance in favour of Janukovich. I'll repeat, active, but accurate!

So: now is a high time to test what our sovereign democracy means in reality.

Ilya Vladislavovich Konstantinov, ideological secretary of the Party of Social Justice; director of Department of Institute of Development of Civil Society and Local Self-Management; was born on December, 28th, 1956 in Leningrad; has graduated from economic faculty of LSU. 1990-1993 - the People's Deputy, a member of the Supreme body of the Russian Federation, a member of Committee engaged with economic reforms, Committee on freedom of worship, creeds, mercy and charity; in 1992 on the Constituent Congress of National Salvation Front was elected co-chairman and chairman of Executive Board of the NSF. Acted publicly against strengthening of presidential authority in 1993. On the 1^st of May, 1993 participated in the demonstration which ended by bloodshed in Moscow. In September, 1993 after the decree of the President B.Eltsin about dissolution of Congress of People's Deputies and the Supreme body of the Russian Federation began to formf fighting teams of defenders of the House of Councils of Russia and took part in its defense in October. After the storm of the White House was arrested. He was released following the declared of the State Duma of the first convocation of amnesty in February, 1994.

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