After the Transfer of Radiolocator in Gabala to the USA Putin Will Stop Military-Technical Cooperation with Venezuela to Please Bush

Serious changes took place during the last 3-4 years in sphere of military-technical cooperation of Russia with foreign states. If earlier the basic share of external orders fell to India, China and the countries of Southeast Asia - Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, today Arabian countries of the Near East and Northern Africa as well as Venezuela are the leaders.

Such states as Algeria, Libya, Syria, Sudan once traditionally got the Soviet arms and military techniques, have already concluded or are close to the signing of contracts for a total sum over 13 billion dollars. Besides Russia actively develops highly technological cooperation with Jordan, Yemen, the United Arab Emirates. There is also a prospect with Saudi Arabia if it will decide to get Air Defense Weapon "Tor-M1" after Greece, Iran, Venezuela and Libya.

On the other hand, future prospects of cooperation of Russia with Iran looks foggy. Last months the Kremlin under a pretext of financial disagreements in every possible way tightens works on construction of the atomic power station in Bushera. Vladimir Putin's last initiatives on joint use of Radio Detection and Ranging Equipment "Daryal" in Azerbaijan with the USA in view of antimissile defense against Iran should be regarded as frankly unfriendly.

In this situation there are information leakages obviously specifying propaganda preparation by the Americans of aggression against the Persians, in case if it happens, it's clear that no military-technical cooperation of Iran with Russia will be possible.

So, according to the messages, within the limits of works of Democratic People's Republic of Korea at participation and financial support of Iran appreciable promotion of the North-Korean rocket program was outlined. Thus cooperation between Iran and Democratic People's Republic of Korea are secretly supported by China and, probably, Pakistan.

Within the limits of this cooperation, North-Korean ballistic missiles of the average range capable to reach targets in the Western Europe can appear in Iran already in the current year and by 2013 - intercontinental ballistic missiles capable to reach the USA produced by Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

On the other hand, according to information from МАGAТE, by the end of July, 2007 Iran, probably, will finish quantity of working centrifuges up to 3.000, that will allow it to produce within a year volume of the enriched uranium-235 sufficient for creation of a nuclear bomb. As "Reuters" informed referring to sources in MAGATE, by the end of 2007 Iran can finish number of working centrifuges up to 8.000. In total Iranian authorities are going to start 54 000 centrifuges at the enterprise in Netenza.  

Promulgation of all this info clearly points that a war is not far and, consequently, it will be necessary to wait with the development of military-technical cooperation of Russia with Iran.

There are alerting moments connected with Venezuela, but they are of another sort. Though externally everything looks good. Thus, according to the messages of press, Venezuela has recently sent in Federal service on military-technical cooperation an application for construction of nine diesel engine-electric submarines: five of the project 636 and four of a new project 677E "Amur". At that originally the Venetians insisted only on a series of "Amur", but they were convinced to take also 636 boats. At the same time, the newspaper "Commersant" underlines, the head submarine of the project 677 has not been accepted in the inventory by the Russian Navy - its official register has been planned to the current year. That is why the contract, most likely, will be signed only for 5 submarines of the project 636.

Last large export contract on a series of such submarines was done for China to which Russia in 2004-2006 delivered eight submarines of the project 636 for the sum of 1.8 billion dollars. Now FSUE "Admiralty Shipyards" builds two submarines of the 636-th project for Algeria.

The federal agency on industry distributed the order for submarines for Venezuela as follows: three boats of the 636-th project will be built FSUE "Admiralty Shipyards" of St.-Petersburg, two - by FSUE "Sevmashenterprise" from Severodvinsk. These very enterprises will build 4 submarines of the project 677E if Venezuela will decide to get them. The cost of the contract then will make up approximately 2 billions dollars.

Now Venezuela allocates significant means for modernization of armed forces. In 2005-2006 it spent 4.3 billion dollars for purchase of arms, including 3.4 billion - in Russia. Venezuela has already got or gets 24 fighting planes Su-30Mk2V, 21 of Air Defense Weapons "Tor-M1", 35 of helicopters "Mi", 100 thousand automatic devices Kalashnikov AK-103. According to the contracts signed in 2006 - the beginning of 2007 Venezuela is on the second place among buyers of the Russian arms after Algeria, which in March, 2006 signed an agreement for the sum of 7.5 billion dollars.

In December, 2006 the commander of Naval Forces of Venezuela vice-admiral Armando Laguna declared that Venezuela was going to buy abroad nine diesel submarines to supervise a shelf zone where Venezuela extracted oil. Several countries participated in the tender: Germany with submarines of the type 212/214, France and Spain with a boat "Scorpene" and Russia which exposed "Amur".

Besides Venezuela now modernizes two German submarines bought earlier to prolong the term of their operation for 10-12 years. Therefore, even if Caracas will get only five Russian submarines, it will possess the largest underwater fleet in Latin America: Peru has - 6 boats, Brazil - 5, Chile - 4.

Venezuela does not hide the main aim of modernization of the Navies. In March the adviser of the president of Venezuela the general Alberto Muller Rohas declared that Ugo Chaves re-armed fleet so that "to counteract possible American military-naval blockade of Venetian oil works and direct military confrontation with Washington".

Chaves himself in the beginning of June also declared that during the visit to Moscow at the end of June he was going to talk also about military-technical cooperation: "Our country should have means for complex protection of the state on the ground, on water, under water and in air".

In this connection the press pays attention that Chaves will visit Russia before Vladimir Putin's visit to the USA where he is going to have complex negotiations with George Bush. In these conditions, "Commersant" stresses, possible Russian-Venezuelan bargain on submarines could complicate forthcoming negotiations.

However, it is not improbable that Vladimir Putin will try to repeat a trick which he has just done at summit of G8 in the USA. Before the summit, as you known, they in the Kremlin made a thing of perspective American system of antimissile defense system in Czechia and Poland. At the summit Putin ostensibly unexpected for everybody diffused a situation having offered Bush to share Radio Detention and Ranging Equipment in Azerbaijan. Though actually everything was quite expectable - it was discussed in April during the visit of the Minister of Defence of the USA Robert Gates to Moscow. Nevertheless, there was an external effect from Putin's initiative that helped him to avoid unpleasant discussions of a theme of human right in Russia.

It is not impossible that during negotiations with Bush on the 1^st-2^nd of July the president of Russia in gratitude for "correct understanding" by the American colleague of the so-called "problem-2008" which strongly disturbs the Kremlin, will put forward the next set of "courageous" initiatives. Among them - refusal of military-technical cooperation of Russia with Venezuela.