Even before Putin's return to the Kremlin it was possible to assume that to try to crush protest wave his mode will need pretext for new steps to fascism – certain analog of arson of Reichstag. Events of the evening on May, 6th near cinema "Udarnik" ideally suit such scenario.
Let's return mentally 107 years back – to well-known events of Bloody Sunday of January 9/22, 1905. Authorities should have understood that people who went to the tsar with petition would surely go to Palace Square. Those who placed Preobrazhensky Guard regiment with the order to fire live rounds on the square planned massacre in advance.
If the tsar wanted to avoid bloodshed (and own subsequent transformation into a martyr) could either transfer the aim of attraction of grandiose demonstration, having arranged a meeting of representatives with delegation of demonstrators in any other place; or to block far approaches to the Winter Palace, to adjust fire pumps to send the most zealous away or to undertake other, not so difficult measures. Armies in front of a palace which would be inevitably approached by twenty-thirty thousand demonstrators which can't turn away under the pressure of the following columns would surely lead to bloodshed.
A rank of OMON fighters before entrance on half-empty Bolotnaya Square to which many thousands demonstrators have been going for several hours for sure means fight. Or the need in the face of televiewers of the whole world to take thousand protesting sitting on asphalt away. When idiots and rascals in uniforms blocked the road to the column going from Kaluzhskaya Square under the pretext of excessive number of participants of the action (instead of ritual thousand-rouble penalty to organizers) – they were meaningly preparing battle. If they would have liked to dismiss the column of demonstrators then, perfectly imagining its number by data from helicopter every minute flying by, it was possible using speaker phone to call people to go away.
No instructions followed – peace demonstration reached a place of the coordinated meeting going to waste 40 minutes on listening speeches of speakers on duty that no everything had been lost, that it’s necessary to unite and so on. It would have been a kind of memorial service for the hopes for public lifting. But it became the first since October, 1993 open street collision of demonstrators with cops. It became the end of “Gandhian” period of the Russian protest movement when it was considered the highest civil valor to become the next innocent victim of arbitrariness. Sad ending turned into fighting start. Fear and meanness of authorities weren't got bared with such cynical frankness for long.
After all demonstration on January, 9, 1905 was not considered as the beginning of Revolution, but as the last splash of the petition campaign begun in autumn of 1904 – at first by banquets in glory of appeals to reforms, then by adoption of liberal addresses on behalf of district councils, lawyer and professorial assemblies.
For last one and a half years the Russian society at first lived in a fool’s paradise thinking that after December, 11th, 2010 (Manezhnaya Square) the Russian nationalists became the main oppositional force. Then – hoping that appeal of Navalny to vote for members of Mironov’s and Zyuganov’s parties in December, 2011 woulf weaken "United Russia", not just raise political capitalization of the controlled opposition. Then there was illusion that Prokhorov is capable to become new word of liberal resistance. Then there was illusion that the writers who have not passed prosecutions are capable to head political movement. Then that the Kremlin is ready to negotiate with the most moderate opposition. The last illusion was that in the evening on May, 6th authorities won't prevent leaders of December to "close" protest campaign solemnly and sadly.
Illusions ended. The Russian reality began.
