Why did Kudrin get the spike? The most widespread version - that earlier the post of the prime minister was promised to him and he simply freaked out. But, I think, the reason is different.
On the one hand, Kudrin has been staying on the post of the Minister of Finance for already more than 10 years. He got tired to it, he wants something else - he wants to grow. To be subordinate to the Prime Minister Medvedev is, on the contrary, huge fall in comparison with submission to Prime Minister Putin. Therefore Kudrin simply placed application for a post of the chairman of Bank of Russia.
On the other hand, the post of the Minister of Finance starts reminding gradually heating up frying pan. Long time Kudrin was withdrawing tax money from the country, putting them in the American and European securities, thus blocking modernization in Russia. Such strategy was defined by consensus in a ruling party, Kudrin was only the executor - but shocks in the world markets and expectation of bankruptcy of Greece showed that securities in which means of the Russian budget were invested can depreciate. Then someone should answer for it - why should Kudrin answer for it?
Rumours about Kudrin's competence were strongly exaggerated. From my point of view, expert like Siluyanov, for example, not mentioning Golikova can carry out Kudrin's functions at his level without regaining consciousness. Therefore there will be no changes in the Russian finance with his resignation.
Whether other rats will run away from Medvedev's ship? Well, actually he has no ship, he hasn't even formed high-grade command. He has about 8 persons, including Dvorkovich and Timakov but they have no place to run, as well as no need.
How it will effect elections? Probably, it will not. Elections are ritual. As hearing of the annual president's decree by the deputies, as changing of the guards at Eternal flame - this ritual gives executors hope that their power is still strong and, maybe, they will manage to avoid system crisis.
It's "sovereign democracy": fair, open and completely transparent elections - we even know both voters by sight!
As to observance of at least minimum decencies - ruling gang, I think, simply doesn't perceive citizens of Russia as people equal to them. For them we are, obviously, "Untermenschen" whom they don't need to be ashamed.
I will remind that one of the reasons - certainly, not the main one, - of appearance of guerrilla movement in Belarus and in Ukraine was that German soldiers - even before barbarities - didn't consider peasants people and, for example, absolutely easily took bath in presence of women and young girls in the street being nude. It caused shock - but it was also very useful for understanding of true character of the new power.
Medvedev can head the government at Putin. Unless he can be appointed the head of circus? Obviously he refused to become the chairman of the Constitutional Court. After "Just Cause" failure there was a vacant post of the prime minister which in a year after Putin's inauguration will be responsible for the destructive liberal reforms planned long time ago (and partially even confirmed by the law) in relation to all spheres (from housing and communal services to budgetary organizations).
The logic is simple: it is necessary to reduce economy costs but corruption costs - the ruling class income - can only grow. It means, it is necessary to reduce social expenses, periodically calming down indignation by throwing from the top of the power next Kirienko. This place was prepared for Prokhorov but Medvedev suits it, in my opinion, even better.
It's absolutely not important who will be the head of the Ministry of Finance in such government. Likely, they will offer it to Golikov - but already in the new government, after Putin's inauguration. May be to Vice-premier Zhukov - he has been working as the chairman of budgetary committee of the State Duma for 11 years. Basically it's possible to keep Siluyanov. But the policy of refusal of modernization and freezing of money in the budget won't change. It is defined not by the Minister of Finance but by strategic interests of the ruling gang, its orientation, as far as I can judge, not on development but on plundering of the country with legalization of the capitals in the West.
