Dmitry Medvedev Won't Be Appointed the Prime Minister, So, Accordingly, He Won't Be the President

Addressing journalists, the first vice-premier, the candidate for successors Dmitry Medvedev declared: "Before known political events all forces in the country have to fix together the successes reached in economy and social sphere without breaking stable balance and not to fall down in internal showdowns, not to create problems which it would be necessary to struggle with then. It happened so in our country, unfortunately".

One could gather than so far as Medvedev publicly started talking about an opportunity of infringement of "stable balance" and "internal showdowns", he had strong enough reasons. It is remarkable that a little bit earlier, on December, 12th in interview to "NG" practically the same things were told by the adviser of Medvedev and Alexander Voloshin - the Kremlin political scientist Gleb Pavlovsky.

According to Pavlovsky to prevent Putin from leaving in 2008 presidential chair could following things: “state of emergency announced in answer to some actions of extremists or formation of new state with new Constitution or world war". Thus Pavlovsky approves that "a number of politicians are going to intercept Putin’s majority behind his back" and for this purpose they "make us accustomed to a new tool - to political murders". You will agree that it sounds rather ambiguously in a view of mysterious deaths of Politkovskaya and Alexander Linvinenko.  

However, unlike Medvedev and Pavlovsky there are in liberal camp enough people informed who are capable to dare to speak more distinctly. One of them - political scientist Alexander Ryklin regularly published in "Hedgehog". On December, 26th there was there his rather frank article devoted to "problem-2008" under the title "Landscape Before the Fight".

Ryklin approves that political project under the name "Putin" comes to its logic end irrespectively of the fact whether there will be a figurant in the Kremlin or he will leave it in 2008. According to the opinion of the author, the project "Putin" will be closed even more hard than it was opened in 1999. "As we remember it has been opening from explosions of apartment houses and from the second Chechen war". "Those scripts of 2008 that today are being written in the Kremlin, - the political scientist continues – foretell nothing good".

Ex-prime-minister Sergey Stepashin one of these days spoke up that after 2008 Putin would find a way to keep the control over the country. Alexander Ryklin is assured that "it is absolutely impossible" as even now "Putin controls almost nothing. That is, having voluntary refused from solving of key question of modern Russian policy - a question of configuration that would be accepted by authority after 2008 - he as though signed an application on resignation". The author is convinced that "powers of the leader of all Russian bureaucracy, the leader of the huge kleptocratic clan whose cumulative interest is directed exclusively on assignment of resources of the territory under control, have appeared to be suspended in the air. They are not even put out to tender. That is it’s not possible to buy them. They can be only won. It’s clear, a war has begun. At that Putin even doesn’t have enough forces and will to manage to get any preliminary conditions for himself. He simply goes down stream".

Then Alexander Ryklin passes to the analysis of existing in the Kremlin quasiparties: "party of the successor" and "party of the third term". According to the vivid expression of the political scientist, "the party of the successor" as though says to the president:

"Vladimir Vladimirovich, you worked a lot to the blessing of our native land. We understand - you are tired, you would like to be in a shadow, to have a rest. Well, please, make the last effort - appoint a fellow (Dmitry Medvedev) the prime minister. That’s all, nothing’s else is required from you, further we will somehow follow him, drag him, skid him. You shouldn’t be afraid of anything - nobody will let out your Khodorkovsky, nobody will recollect neither about North Ost, nor about Beslan, everything will be ok with Gazprom and we will not touch "Rosneft" and Roma (Roman Abramovich) is already waiting for you. Nobody will have any unpleasant questions to you, only general respect and honour. Just sing it…”

Reaction of the “party of the third term”, in the figurative construction drawn by Ryklin is the following: "Do you trust them, Vladimir Vladimirovich? At heart they hate you. They not will bring Khodorkovsky from Chita the next day and you even won’t have time to come from your Spassky Towel in time, as there already will appear Berezovsky with friendly, friendly smile … They are one and the same company … You trifled with them eight years instead of suppressing. Well, it’s ok, now we do it ourselves … But there’s one problem here – you should remain to keep the house… You understand that we have nobody to change you… But you needn’t do anything – just go here and there and we will feed you well and in time”.

As the author of the article considers, "everything points out that events of the near future will develop in Russia according to this, the second script which is more attractive to Putin even because it does not demand from him any sharp movements and concrete actions. That is it is not necessary to accept someone's side, formally remaining above fight. And actually, certainly, under it ".

On the other hand, "the party of the successor" - "party of Voloshin – Chubays” obviously has lost everything and so anybody will appoint Dmitry Medvedev the prime minister. It is possible already never. And, accordingly, he couldn’t be the president of Russia. There are a lot of evidences to it. For example, the recent application of Roman Abramovich on resignation from a post of the governor of Chukotka. It looks like, Roman Abramovich is really tired of severe weekdays of the Russian policy and wants to rest. The question is whether he will be released and how much will it cost him and who will take decision – this is one big question”.  

In a summary Alexander Ryklin cited a joke which for some time already was wandering in Runet: "Abramovich has declared Putin resignation. Who will be then the president of Russia?". Having passed further on serious tone the political scientist summed up: "So-called Kremlin liberals lost struggle for authority to so-called security officials. But inside the circle of these security officials furious struggle was already developing. Almost all of them are simple fellows, they won’t be ceremonious with each other. So it won’t be boring in the near future”.  

Practically all analytics and experts are sure that "it will not be boring". Thus already majority of them agree with the fact that Dmitry Medvedev has lost presidential prospects. So, political scientist Oleg Grechenevsky in the correspondence with the other political scientist Anton Surikov published in the Internet declared:

"The main candidate of the one from Petersburg is - Sergey Ivanov, Putin is his doubler just in case... And true aide-de-camp of Putin Medvedev – is not the candidate at all. For the real candidate into president Medvedev appeared too early on a stage - most likely only to distract attention of opposition from the real candidate. This clown doesn’t fit for anything else! ".

One more political scientist, Stanislav Belkovsky, also shares the point of view about Dmitry Medvedev's weak prospects. On December, 26th Belkovsky made a report devoted to political-economical results of the leaving year in the established by him Institute of National Strategy.

Making speech at the event he called in question presidential prospects of another candidate for successors - Sergey Ivanov. At the same time Belkovsky sceptically said about "the party of the third term" - PTS. Addressing to political scientist Alexander Nagorny present on presentation the lecturer presented him to the ones who gathered as one of the outstanding figures of PTS, as though letting know that that "virtual party" led by Vladislav Surkov consisted besides Nagorny only of other publicists from “Zavtra” and “Forum.msk” – Alexander Prohanov, Vladimir Filin, Anton Surikov and Ruslan Saidov.  

As to the meaning of "a virtual construction", it, according to the Belkovsky’s statement, consists in aspiration of the Kremlin to frighten so strongly the West by Igor Sechin and Ramzan Kadyrov that it has removed its objections against appointment Medvedev as successor. However, the reason of such objections is not clear, if they exist at all, of what I very much doubt, as well as the reason it is needed to the Kremlin after, for example, Belkovsky’s declaration the candidates of Medvedev and Ivanov having lost their actuality.

Perhaps, the reason is in the statement of the author of the report that "the true successor" will be very soon showed to a society. But who it will be Belkovsky has not told and I am not aware whom he meant. On the other hand, conversations recently have renewed that Dmitry Kozak will again become the successor. Ex-oligarch Alexander Smolensky had time even to publish in November the new detective book "Ukreprajon "Rublevka" dedicated to this theme.

In this "product" of Smolensky inutile "successor Medvedev-Ivanov" on a background of fair and vigorous Kozak looks pitiful and poorly. But on the other hand, power "party of the third term" headed by Igor Sechin - ex-oligarch has not a virtual construction as Belkovsky approves but very much real.

At that it’s not restricted by ostensibly "conducted Surkov", publications in "Zavtra” and on "FORUM.msk" but with Putin's full connivance, kills to the right and to the left, makes chaos and in general uses the same criminal methods which Gleb Pavlovsky hints at and which Alexander Ryklin openly speaks about.

In other words, it does not cause doubts that forthcoming year 2007, really, won’t be boring.

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