The Interest of the Successor Can Stand behind the Murder of Politkovskaya

Well-known political scientist Vladimir Filin expressed his opinion about the motives of murder of Anna Politkovskaya in a sharp discord with an article of another known political scientist S.A.Belkovsky on APN.ru having assumed that among those who ordered the murder on birthday of the president could be I.Sechin, R.Kadyrov and others standing up for them "security officials" from those who supports V.V.Putin's third term.

V.I.Filin doesn’t agree categorically with S.A.Belkovsky's point of view.

- Such actions as Anna Politkovskaya's murder, - the political scientist considers, - are directed just against those who supports the third term and by virtue of it cannot be ordered by them.

Really, Vladimir Filin had already warned on pages of FORUM.msk also that after the murder of the vice-president of the Central Bank A.Kozlov mutual shooting of elites would begin. He also spoke about the way "orange revolution" would look like in Russia: "It will not be Kasyanov with Limonov who are used as false targets", - he considers.

Filin thinks that in the Russian conditions "colour revolution" will be carried out as a transfer of power from security officials headed by Putin to tandem Medvedev-Voloshin – with the following inevitable “cleaning off” of security officials.

"Already in 1999 Eltsin’s oligarchy collided with the group Primakov-Luzkov-Gusinsky and regional leaders standing up for by them, - V.I.Filin said. - Their defeat could lead to heavy consequences including that present "political heavyweights" could find themselves on prison plank beds. And they agreed on the compelled union with security officials therefore Vladimir Putin became the president of Russia".

- For today, - Filin believes, - Eltsin’s oligarches (first of all Abramovich, Chubays, Fridman and others) at the support of the West are going to return power to themselves. Their main political manager is Alexander Voloshin, the person, in my opinion, of outstanding abilities. The successor is - weak and dependent Dmitry Medvedev. To break these plans can Putin's third term during which security officials will have possibility finally to become strong. Therefore Eltsin’s oligarchy accelerates cleaning off of security officials using as well the method of provocation.

Defining “colour revolution” in Russia Filin formulates it today as follows: transfer of power to tandem Medvedev-Voloshin with feedforward cleaning off Sechin, Kadyrov and security officials.

Making comments on probability of the third term of Putin and scenario of "colour revolution" according to V.Filin, the economist and political scientist Michael Delyagin considers that what is concerns Putin's preservations for the third term "anyhow he will go this way". Alternative — prompt loss of controllability. Actually, "orange scenario" is in the fact that Putin leaves and the chaos begins: the successor no matter who he is, will begin "cleaning off" of a hostile clan — either power or liberal oligarches — and then if he will live to it, he will start “cleaning off” of the competitors from his own clan. The result – joining against him of all destined to be cleaned off and system crisis.  

- One of a few things of which I cannot be accused, - M.G.Delyagin says, - is good relation to the present president. But he led the country to a condition in which his leaving of the authority would lead the country even to a greater tragedy than his preservation in power.

"I am ready to accept arguments of those who say that Putin grieves on a private life and wants simply to live to his pleasure as the private person but even if he would forget about the destiny of Nikolay II who also used “to grieve” and wished simply to live happily "in the dear to heart Livadia”, — he has in his environment a lot of interested people, capable of reminding him about this instructive history", - Delyagin noticed.

- Putin will be persuaded by different means, -Delyagin thinks. – We will hope that technologies of 1999 inRussiaand of 2001 inthe USAwill remain to be non-demanded.

"Both scripts, - the chief editor of FORUM.msk Anatoly Baranov considers, - and "colour revolution" with tandem successor-regent and Putin's preservation for the third term with inevitable strengthening of power oligarchy in this or that way preserve that bastard condition of the Russian state and society in which it dangles for more than 15 years. These are two different scripts of the same stagnations which will lead to the rapid cutting off of “the project of Russia” and release of the Russian space for other peoples and states. Thus, the only way out which promises Russiaany hope for the future is as much as possible sharp and fast slipping in system crisis which the country can leave cleared and updated. It is a question of some kind of catharsis. And even Russian revolt, senseless and ruthless, is represented to me as not so awful to Russiathan rotting under authority of an oligarchical mode - and there’s no difference if this oligarchy will be power or "eltsin’s". It’slike to compare who will better read epitaph on the grave.

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