The theme of changing prices for energy resources and consequences of these changes for the Russian budget remained one of the main during the whole first day of XVI St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Thus according to the Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Anton Siluanov, in case mid-annual price for oil in 2012 appears lower than $100 per barrel, deficiency of the Russian budget will make 1,5% from gross domestic product volume.
“This year revised budget provides almost zero balance — deficiency at a rate of 0,1% from gross domestic product, but the budget is made at the price for oil in 115$/barrel”, — Siluanov reminded.
Before recent amendments in the law on the budget for the current year planned deficiency made whole 1,5% from gross domestic product. Correction reducing it to 0,1% from gross domestic product, Vladimir Putin signed at the beginning of June therefore in absolute expression deficiency of the federal budget in the current year decreased to 68,1 billion roubles from 876,6 billion included into the budget. Similar feint with figures appeared possible thanks to the increase of a forecast for the mid-annual price for Urals oil from 100 to 115 dollars per barrel. It’s impossible to say what the basis for such forecast in conditions of proceeding deterioration of economic situation in Europe and China was.
It is remarkable that already now government officials don’t really trust in taken from nowhere $115 per barrel and, as a result, in symbolical budget deficit in 0,1% from gross domestic product. In fact, they are compelled to recognize that objectively situation returns to the initial arithmetic with average price in $100 per barrel and deficiency in 1,5% from gross domestic product. It’s only at the most favorable combination of circumstances.
Following the results of the current year the price for oil will make 100$/barrel in case if it will be at a level slightly lower than $90/barrel in the second half of the year. As if derisively over the statements of the Russian ministers, markings of brent oil dropped more than by 3% below important psychological level in 90$/barrel in the first day of the Petersburg summit.
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From editorial board: So, at the Petersburg forum the government officially recognized that all conversations about modernization, diversification and other - empty phrase and economy of Putin's Russia entirely has raw character. Dependence of the budgetary indicators on the results of sales of energy carriers has direct character: oil costs more than 115 dollars per barrel - the budget is deficit-free, the cost of oil is 100 dollars - deficiency of 1,5 percent, oil price lower 90$ - national catastophe.
It’s, undoubtedly, "achievement" of Putin’s period - in 1998 it was a dream of the Ministry of Finance to get 20 dollars for barrel, budgetary expenses were generally reimbursed at the expense of own production. But for years of Putin’s oil boom (apologists of “United Russia" already say that Putin is the one who regulates the world prices for oil) it became unprofitable to produce something – things of the Chinese origin are cheaper, now they are even of better quality.
Russia returned to its sources in some questions: Europe made great geographical discoveries travelling by ships produced from the Russian wood, with ropes from the Russian hemp. Industrial revolution in Europe consumed Russian coal and Russian metal, Russian bread... While Russia remained some remote place, consumer of foreigners’ achievements. The same way now - next technological revolution is provided with our resources, while we remain monkeys with IPhones. We hold our monkey economic forum in the former great capital which, if to think better, does not have any relation to present Russia. Tyumen - here you are the second capital of Putin's Russia, "bung hole to Europe"...
А.B.
