Needle of Barometer Turns Steadily Towards War

The World Bank reconsidered forecasts of growth of economy for 2012: it’s been lowered in times for Eurozone, for world economy — more than by 1% that became the greatest reduction for last three years. Developing countries are offered to prepare for the worst.

The World Bank declared the strongest deterioration of own forecasts for world economy for last three years. World economy growth in 2012 will make 2,5% — only half a year ago experts of the bank expected 3,6%. For 2013 the forecast is lowered to 3,1% — by 0,5%. Last time the World Bank sharply changed its forecasts in January of crisis 2009 — by 2,1%.

Deterioration of world economy condition is already obvious from reduction of volumes of world trade. So, global export of goods and services in 2011 grew by 6,6%, whereas in 2010 the gain was almost twice more - 12,4%. Under forecasts of the World Bank, in 2012 increase will make 4,7%. At the same time prices for energy carriers, metals and minerals, agricultural goods are 10%, 25% and 19% lower maxima of the beginning of 2011. Universal share index The MSCI All-Country World Index for 2011 was reduced by 9,4%, agency Bloomberg marks.

Eurozone economy, the World Bank calculated, can be reduced by 0,3% instead of expected growth by 1,8%.

Change of the forecast for the USA is less considerable – the growth is lowered from 2,9% to 2,2%.

The forecast of growth of the Japanese economy is lowered from 2,6% to 1,9%. As a whole indicator for the developed countries is reduced from 2,7% to 1,4%, for developing ones from 6,2% to 5,4%.

Bourgeois analysts assert that there’s no way out from current situation, it is necessary to suffer until there’s patience. God suffered and ordered us to do the same. However in reality and it is known to each bourgeois analyst, the way out from world economic crisis is world war.

World war solves almost all problems - social, political, economic as it releases the states from obligations before peoples and before each other.

"The European and world war has brightly definite character of bourgeois, imperialistic, dynastic war. Struggle for markets and robbery of other countries, aspiration to stop revolutionary movement of proletariat and democracy inside the countries, aspiration to fool, to separate and to destroy proletarians of all countries, having hallowed slaves of one nation against hired slaves of the other to the advantage of bourgeoisie — that is the only real maintenance and value of war", Lenin wrote in his work "Problems of revolutionary social democracy in the European war". A bit less than 100 years passed, but what changed? Nothing!

The question is only whether world economy is ill heavily enough that the world bourgeoisie resorts to such strong "medicine" as world war?

The largest world economy, the USA has been solving problems by means of operated military conflicts for already many years, but each of these wars is still far not the world one. Even if the USA will dare to attack such large country as Iran, it won’t be the beginning of the world military conflict though obviously it will approach it.

Second-large in the world economy of Eurozone also follows the American way, having carried out operated military conflicts - in the former Yugoslavia and now in Libya.

All goes to war in the Asian-Pacific zone where more than two thirds of world gross national product is being produced as a whole: permanent conflict of Northern and Southern Koreas, preparation of China for power solution of problem of Taiwan, obviously aggressive aspirations of Japan in relation to the Kurils, variety of territorial disputes in the southern seas and so on.

All these processes are accompanied by growth of military budgets natural to imperialistic economies, working out of new systems of arms (today not only "old" capitalist powers, but also India, Pakistan, Brazil and even "socialist" China are imperialistic). The number of powers of "nuclear club" grows, more and more countries master rocket and aviation technologies, create carrier - based fleet. What is the reason to have shock aircraft carriers, if not to use it in overseas military operations? What’s the reason to have strategic aircraft, if not for drawing of blows across strategic opponent?

Old theatrical rule - if a gun hangs on the wall at the beginning of a play, it must be fired before the end, it can be applied undoubtedly also to battlefields. Owing to it question of war and peace is defined only by objective circumstances - depth of economic crisis and degree of radicalism of measures for its overcoming.

А.B.

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