Fitch reconsidered forecast on ratings of obligations of the Russian Federation in foreign and national currencies from "positive" to "stable". As agency reports, ratings of the Russian Federation are confirmed at a level of ВВВ. The agency also confirmed a rating of short-term obligations of Russia at a level F3 and country ceiling at a level ВВВ +.
Such decision against accruing European problems looks quite naturally. No matter how hard the Russian authorities try to present the country as potential serene port in the sea of storming global crisis, it is clear that Russia depends on world economy as nobody else. The more so problems of Europe which is the basic consumer of our raw materials will affect the Russian Federation first of all, "Utro.ru" writes.
“Recent events put lacks and risks connected with political model existing in Russia to the fore”, — they explains in Fitch. And though the agency still considers Vladimir Putin the favourite of presidential elections of 2012, experts are confused with absence of clearness in a question of how authorities are going to react to the large-scale protests caused by results of parliamentary elections as well as on other changes in political conditions. In long-term prospect it should lead to improvement of quality of management, however in short-term prospect protest actions only strengthen uncertainty, Fitch marks.
“Political risks in Russia grew and economic situation in the world worsened since the moment when we confirmed rating of Russia in September, 2011 last time. The probability of increase of rating gradually comes to naught and „stable“ forecast reflects current situation better”, — expert of Fitch on sovereign ratings Charles Sevil summarized.
- For the country of peripheral capitalism which Russia strongly resembles lately combination of supermonopolized raw economy with dictatorship is quite organic, - editor-in-chief of FORUM.msk Anatoly Baranov considers. - Complete dependence on oil and gas "monoculture" makes such economy extremely sensitive to external factors and stability which is reached by financial savings is a fiction - when centers of emission of world currencies are abroad and influence of the countries of peripheral capitalism on them is minimum, these savings can be devaluated in one day. It is natural that external factors are defining in functioning of such economic model. But the same can be told also about political model of Russia which is focused on Putin's "monoculture". Decrease of his political rating and appearance of a threat of change of a mode inevitably becomes important business factor and it will be so always until the model remains invariable - raw economy plus personal dictatorship.
"Change of political model in Russia will inevitably entail also change of economic model, - Anatoly Baranov considers, - as new political force can come only leaning against weights of citizens. And it is required to these weights
"Change of political model in Russia will inevitably entail also change of economic model, - Anatoly Baranov considers, - as new political force can come only leaning against citizens. Citizens need clear picture of distinct future where there should be high employment in economy and high productivity of economic model. That is unequivocally departure from raw model, scale investments into not raw branches, technological, scientific and technical progress. Then mass class capable to become a support of a new mode - necessarily progressive and obligatory very democratic – will appear. On the contrary - change of economic model will the same way inevitably demand political reforms with transition to formation of the same mass class interested in growth of social production - that is absolutely not possible without growth of role of individual, separate citizen in the decision-making mechanism which should concern not only minor question, but also quite wide political. Anyway there’s no place in the future of Russia to Putin and his political-economical model – in other words Russia doesn't have future with Putin".
