Ukraine on the Edge of Impeachment? No, on the Edge of Split

Activity on the beginning of impeachment procedure of the president of Ukraine Victor Jushchenko will hardly lead to his real suspension from authority but mechanisms of pressure upon the president can be used, known Ukrainian political scientist (just recently former known Russian journalist) Vitaly Portnikov considers. The leader of Communist Party of Ukraine Peter Simonenko already declared that his party officially suggested fractions of the Supreme Rada to begin procedure of impeachment of the president. Assistant to the chapter of Jushchenko's secretariat Andrey Kislinsky on March, 17 declared that BJUT and Communist Party on Thursday, March, 19 planned to begin procedure of impeachment. Under application Jushchenko's representative actually it will put start to "anticonstitutional revolution". All are in tension and wait.

Tough yesterday the deputy from fraction BJUT Andrey Kozhemjakin declared that his political force would not support the initiative to begin procedure of impeachment.

"It will hardly lead to early presidential elections. Simply it will not allow the president to operate and will become real signal to other countries both in the East and in the West that one can't have anything in common with Victor Jushchenko as with playing politician and as with politician of the supreme league because he is in condition of terminating of powers and political career", - Portnikov said in his turn acting at session of "round table" of expert community in the Ukrainian representation of RIA News on Wednesday.

Thus the expert specified that "impeachment of the president as procedure is possible only in situation when this impeachment will be joined - not in word but also in practice - by Party of Regions, when it will become a common matter of Party of Regions and Julia Timoshenko's Block".

From editorial board: It is a pity that Vitaly Portnikov's lucid mind (as well as of many other "emigrants") is occupied with situation in Ukraine not in Russia - there's no policy, no political journalism in the Russian Federation, but there is state propagation and dissident movements. Political scientists in such circumstances, certainly, are not necessary - there's necessity only in experts on special propaganda and work with "heterodoxes" from the 5-th department.

Actually Jushchenko's destiny is less interesting, rather than destiny of Ukraine, if there today (or some other day) procedure of impeachment would take place. Very few people understand that Jushchenko himself and his environment are the most interested in this procedure - actually there's no big difference that this president will leave this post today or in the beginning of the next year in the course of elections. While change of political picture in the country connected with his early resignation can lead to a deep split divided Ukrainian society - up to separation of the state. Then Victor Jushchenko has chance to remain the president of the Western Ukraine for unknown period.

Let's say the member of Central Committee KPU, that party which became the initiator of today's theme of impeachment, Jury Solomatin considers: "Galichina just should become Ukraine. To become Ukraine, if Galichina will have the desire, - it will have judging by elections to Ternopol, - will be possible only upon one condition: having transformed all Ukraine into Bandera's Galichina under guidance of a guy in Pinochet's cap".

Naturally, eastern part of Ukraine doesn't want Pinochet's cap and unsolvable contradiction of two parts of one state will be evident. That is Jushchenko's impeachment declared today, according to absolutely accurate opinion of Porrtnikov, wouldn't lead to suspension of the president. Though it can lead him to practically absolute power - through the split of the country. The question is, whether Jushchenko wants it - that is the first. Whether his opponents, first of all from BJUT will allow him to carry out this feint. Тimoshenko, as against Jushchenko, wants to have the whole Ukraine. Though the result of elections in Ternopol where she earlier had 51 percent and now only 8 can make her to make the decision of problem of authority through the split of the country - similar incidents are known in history, for example, division of Roman empire on East and Western between the successors or separation of empire of Charlemagne between three successors.

It is necessary to note that some forces in the Kremlin also push Ukraine to similar decision. It's clear that at the split of Ukraine Eastern part naturally becomes focused on the Russian Federation, up to full integration. It not only solves selfish problems of some Russian and Ukrainian oligarches, allowing to shift a part of financial problems on the budget "under unification", it also solves problems of the governments (first of all the Russian one) with responsibility for crisis - split of Ukraine will be declared a great victory, even greater, than suppressing of Georgia. People will be offered to suffer and pull in belts for the sake of great purpose of Slavic unity.

The western part will immediately receive NATO Membership Action Plan, accommodation in the territory of any western military objects, total integration with Europe - in Europe it will be presented as a great victory of "free world" over wild Asia.

I.e. in the East loss of the half of territory of Ukraine will be considered as a victory, while in the West slipping of other half together with the Russian Federation into feudalism and dictatorship will also be considered as achievement.

There is a question: whether Ukrainians need it?

Аnatoly Baranov

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