Future President or "Outsider"?

Director of Institute of Globalization Problems Michael Deljagin gave his comment with the forecast for development of a political situation in Ukraine to the newspaper "Arguments of the Week".

"For today three persons are ready to struggle for the presidential post, they fill all political life of Ukraine with personal interrelations. For last years they had time to bore voters silly, - Michael Deljagin writes. - Jushchenko has proved to be "Ukrainian Gorbachev". He is quite helpless under political impacts of own prime-minister. With much great pleasure he represents "young Ukrainian democracy" in the West, thus solving daily problems of this democracy in the Ukraine. Today it is already clear that all political force of Jushchenko was in ôimoshenko. And after the conflict with her he simply lives his political life. ôimoshenko - magnificent, effective politician, "Chubays in a skirt".

She is completely controllable by the Americans through her former partner and Ukrainian prime minister Paul Lazarenko. Today he is in the American prison. Therefore, if she will go against the will of "Washington regional committee", Lazarenko's indications on "gas lady" will be taken from the necessary shelf. After that already nothing will prevent Mrs. Timoshenko's convoying in handcuffs for carrying out of corresponding trial. It's hardly possible that she will manage to get justified.
In the meantime the Russian bureaucracy, obviously, is ready to stake on her, not understanding her refined insidiousness. It is enough to recollect that it was Timoshenko who totally took to the cleaner's "Gazprom" in the next "gas war". Ukraine arranged gas blockade to the European Community, claims on which were received by "Gazprom". "Rosukrenergo" which was interfering with it was removed from the circuit of calculations. While mid-annual price for the Russian gas even was reduced in comparison with what the Ukrainian authorities wanted to get in the beginning of negotiations.
Janukovich on her background looks as the third-rate bureaucrat, Victor Chernomyrdin's fine and regrettable similarity. For all these years he failed to become the Ukrainian politician. It's also essential that crash of the Ukrainian economy has to the greatest degree undermined positions of the commercial structures supporting Janukovich.

If only these three figures will take part in elections, Timoshenko's victory seems to be inevitable. As a result - prompt political drift of Ukraine to the West. Only Litvin's participation in elections being not yet recognized as politician of "the first row" will introduce novelty into political strike. He will become new and thus comprehensible to the majority figure which the Ukrainian society is longing for. Soft and splitting but uniting and compromise. He is necessary to Russia in this quality. Though the Russian bureaucracy is so aggressive administratively that he shouldn't either count on it, or to be afraid of its support".

From editorial board: Apparently, Michael Deljagin's estimation is quite precise and it's possible not to make comments on it at all but the situation in Ukraine nevertheless is a little bit more difficult and demands some detailed elaboration.

Really, politicians of "the leading three" already had time to bother the voter, as Victor Jushchenko obviously already leaves the leading position in the Ukrainian politicum and his place is on a bench of veterans, near to ëravchuk and Kuchma. That is the vacant place of one more leader of national scale - is vacant and this vacancy demands urgent replacement. Though it is abundantly clear that such figure cannot be absolutely new and for today unknown person means that only politicians of "the second row" whose reputation and popularity is already very high, that is it can be the person from the limited circle of people, can play such a role. Only few politicians and large businessmen satisfy these conditions. However on a background of increasing crisis businessmen have very vulnerable positions and the processes which are taking place in large political structures deduce practically all but for V.M.Litvin in the struggle for the first place. Deljagin is right here, estimating chances of this politician so high.

However the main enemy of Litvin on a way to political Olympus is... Litvin himself. His advantages are continuation of his lacks, the main from them are indecision and some dependence - he spent too much time "in the team", it's psychologically much more comfortable to him to be "not the first but the second".

Naturally, knowing this feature and making real estimations of the potential of this person, ôimoshenko tries now "to fasten" him to her political chariot, naturally, promising him everything that it is possible to promise. However ôimoshenko differs from Jushchenko just because she doesn't need the post of the president to be beautiful on TV and to shake hands with the first persons. She needs full authority, that is she will apply also for the control over future structure of the Supreme Rada and, hence, to form the government. After formation of own vertical of authority she won't need colleagues - only clients, only those figures who will never, under any circumstances can run up to her level.

Whether Litvin will be allowed in such circumstances to continue presiding in the Supreme Rada? At the beginning, maybe, and yes, if he will execute extremely representation functions. But as a whole, taking into account that it's the parliament that forms the Cabinet, by and large, Litvin will be there constant latent threat fro Timoshenko and she will get rid of him.

Whether Vladimir Litvin understands it? Probably, he understands it perfectly well but can't make a decisive step.

There's separate question for Litvinov - the one of formation of own political force (party) instead of the Block in the Supreme Rada which also can be generated during big election campaign as the process similar to the "neo-Trotskyist" affairs in Russia - throwing away of the most active and outstanding public figures from opposition parties began in Ukraine. It refers to squeezing of L. Grach and his supporters from the Communist Party of Ukraine, exile of the Simferopol heads from the Party of Regions, crisis in Social Party and "derelictness" of N.Vitrenko.

Another question - is that today Ukrainian politicum represents quite unique phenomenon which is quite doing without formulation of any national idea and not trying at all to talk to the voter about state interests. All political strike as a whole is reduced to a certain combination theory on the top echelons of power, while the voter is being proposed situational decisions of these or those problems exciting him.

Politicians try to avoid answers and even formulation of more fundamental questions.

As a whole the voter would like to see something higher, rather than ordinary promises. It's usual for people to think of the future but there's actually no image of the future for Ukraine. Everyone limits oneself to a magic word "European" which has been already bothered the voter who realizes that Ukraine is still far from Europe and that there's nothing concrete behind this European trend. Other part of the voter sees positive in other, Russian direction but there's full disappointment there as practice of political life in the Russian Federation is not at all inspiring. Today politicians do not draw any independent way fro Ukraine. It is thought, it is a big mistake as forthcoming elections can formulate inquiry for the image of the future and for formulation of the state interest.

V.M.Litvin can become the person formulating if not image of the future of Ukraine entirely, then putting before society and the state similar "technical task". It's possible he won't become - on a number of the missed opportunities Ukraine is very much alike Russia.

ánatoly Baranov

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