Balance of foreign trade of the Russian Federation in January, 2009 decreased on 47,6% in comparison with January, 2008 and made 9,9 billion dollars, monitoring of social and economic development of the Russian Federation on the site of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade says.
Export of the goods, according to the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, made 20,2 billion dollars in January, 2009, thus having decreased in comparison with the same month of the last year in 1,7 times.
"Reduction of cost of export in January is caused by reduction of prices on the basic goods of the Russian export, first of all on oil and also by decrease in export of oil and gas in physical expression", - is spoken in the document.
Import of the goods in January, 2009 was reduced on 34,2% and made 10,3 billion dollars.
"On the preliminary data of customs statistics, in January of the current year reduction of import from far-abroad countries on all basic consolidated positions of the commodity nomenclature, including machine-building production, made - 47%, articles of food and raw materials for their production - 25%, chemical products - 29%, textile products and footwear - only 2,7%", - is marked in the materials of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade.
"The data for the first month of 2009 show that decrease in import essentially surpasses reduction of export because of the delay of internal demand for imported goods. So, in January falling of physical volume of import in relation to January, 2008 made 40%, while export for the same period decreased only on 5,5%", - they consider in the Ministry.
From editorial board: Logic of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, considering import as a group, as certain "sausage-shoes" is clear. Both export and import decreases but import is decreasing less, than export, that is in opinion of the ministry is good. While in reality?
In reality falling of prices for energy carriers can be compensated by the growth of sales volumes. While how could we compensate decrease in import?
Certainly by the growth of domestic production, notorious import-substitution. It's good!
Yes, if machine-building, having remained without import deliveries, is capable to produce necessary nomenclature of the goods. But it's not seen that domestic cars can change import ones - on the contrary, yesterday VAZ passed on four-day working week, while GAS has already been working reduced week. It can't happen so at the growth of manufacture. It's not also seen that domestic aircraft industry produced at least 1 plane more, than one year ago. And so on.
Situation with foodstuffs is even worse, in conditions when big cities on 80% eat import food stuffs or produced in fatherland but from foreign raw material or on industrial lines. The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade ascertains reduction on 25% of import foodstuffs. But one can't hope for "import substitution" in the given sphere before new harvest, while one wants to eat every day.
One shouldn't be great economist to understand - townspeople will begin to eat less approximately on a quarter or the quality will be worse. It can not be called famine yet but regular undereating. While development of crisis is still ahead. There's no talking about hungry revolts yet but the poorest categories of citizens will be cut from "food chain" through increase of prices in the near future - at free pricing deficiency of the goods leads to the growth of their price - that is to reduction of their availability. If it is import footwear, it is possible to get along with it, while if it's food, our daily bread...
So, revolutionary public wishes good luck to a ruling mode, it will need it soon.
Anatoly Baranov
