For the time of New Year's holidays a number of registered unemployed in Moscow became twice as much, chairman of Moscow Federation of Trade Unions Michael Nagajtsev informed on air of the radio station "Echo of Moscow". According to the chairman of Moscow Federation of Trade Unions, 290 thousand of Muscovites are today unemployed, whereas there were 56,5 thousand one year ago.
Nagajtsev also noticed reduction of a number of vacancies in the capital. "Job bank is collapsing... There were 175,5 thousand (vacancies) for November,14 and 164 thousand for today", - chairman of Federation of Trade Unions noted.
At that Nagajtsev thinks that after New year "no collapse took place in Moscow" in that sphere, the largest difficulties will await the capital in May - June, in particular when Muscovites who use to serve in army now will come back home.
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From editorial board: Let's start from the fact that Michael Nagajtsev, unlike the majority of modern chiefs, is a competent person. I am acquainted with him since the beginning of the 90s, when he used to be deputy head of International Graphical Federation and worked in Georgievsky Pereulok, where's now a new building of the State Duma. To tell you the truth I was not communicating with him for many years since. A person has been engaged in it since Soviet times, so, if he doesn't tell all the truth, in the whole a picture should be quite real.
The first thing that sticks out - sharp excess of the number of unemployed over the number of vacancies. In the normal situation everything is vice versa, even if approximately 5% of working places is free, there are all the same about three percent of unemployed - it's a norm for capitalistic household. A part of unemployed is not satisfied with working places present on the labour market, part of working places are not satisfied with the candidates. Today even if all unemployed would at once become easy-going and would agree on any work proposed, the number of the ones without work would be greater, than the same parameter in the previous year twice.
If Nagajtsev says that situation will aggravate, there are no reason not to believe him. The matter is not only in those who used to serve in the army - their number is not so big among Muscovites, besides, part of them will study, not work. Even falling at that period end of the academic year in high schools will not add anything essentially new into situation on labour market. He simply does not dare to predict at all how many Muscovites will stay without job when credit money of the last year will come to end, that is by spring. If he will say half-million, he will be accused of alamism, while in reality it obviously will be embellished expectations. In reality, likely, the number will be closer to one million - and with a serious raising trend.
But that's not all. Great number of Guestarbeiter which is not taken into account as official unemployed appeared, far not all of them left the capital. Let's add here that situation on the labour market in general across Russia is significantly worse, than in Moscow. It means additional migration of people hoping to find some earnings in Moscow.
What will authority do with the army of unemployed in the capital? Well, of course there will be organized two movements of social character "for them" - one at "Еdinaya Russia|", the other at "Fair Russia". The CPRF and other pseudo-oppositional structures will also get anxious about something - endless protest meetings", applications and petitions, so - great "call" dedicated to blow off a steam of protest. One of such structures will be, obviously, created under patronage of ER at IGF under supervision of native of this structure, chairman of the State Duma Committee on Labour Andrey Isaev. "Fair Russia Supporters" will try to get under control real left structures, Zjuganov's party will activate work in the line of Headquarters of protest actions and department of workers' and trade unions' movement.
What will real oppositions do?
Self-organizing of people lost or losing job for protection of their own interests comes to the foreground. Creation of trade unions is already a thing of the past, one should have been engaged in it during the period of "Putin's stability", while at the moment of crisis the main weapon of trade unions - threat of a strike - completely loses its effectiveness in industry and could be effective only on transport and in municipal services. Councils of labour collective (working committees) are on the foreground, they should begin struggle for bankruptcy of enterprises preparing to carry out mass job cuts - it's a legal reason for transfer partially or fully production management into the hands of working collective with all the ensuing consequences. Roughly speaking - you can not pay off with the workers - give actives. Let working collective supervise manufacture and management, distribution of profit and expenditure of resources.
But self-organizing of workers is a process in which political left structures can render serious help having acted as "center of crystallization". In particular, within next few days we shall open on FORUM.msk and other left sites uniform base for registration of jobless and the ones losing job. Left active workers, working with base, will help people "to find each other" according to a territorial or industrial attribute, render other help. Certainly, nobody will do anything for workers - one should help himself by himself but we'll do everything we could.
Аnatoly Baranov
