The USA and the Russian Federation Will Sign New Contract SNF-1 in the Style "Vae Victis"

The USA and Russia agreed to develop a new contract in exchange of SNF-1 before expiration of its term in December of the next year, John Rud acting as under secretary of state declared to "Interfax". "It is an arrogant purpose but both sides are full of readiness to work at its achievement", - high-ranking American diplomat said after bilateral consultations which took place in Moscow on Monday. He declared that recently the USA transferred Russia the draft contract which should come on change to SNF-1.

In the meantime it is informed that visit of the delegation of the congress of the USA to Russia would be prolonged till December, 20-th. As RIA-News notes, senator Lugar who is 76 is being considered one of "mentors" on foreign policy questions of Barrack Оbama who won at presidential elections. Three years ago he took Obama with him to visit Russia within the framework of dialogue on questions of safety of storage of nuclear materials. Then, visiting Perm, senators were detained at the airport because of refusal to follow the requirement of frontier guards. However, as the Russian side declared, detention of the American senators was not connected to Lugar's application who in due time suggested to remove Russia from the structure of "G8".

From editorial board: Contracts on strategic nuclear forces (SNF) became a basis of a policy of restriction in the field of the weapon of mass defeat and reflected condition of parity in that area between two world powers. They played their role but in new conditions new contract SNF-1 will be signed not between two equal opponents on power but in absolutely different situation. Though now for the USA there is a question of prospect of restraint of new and future members of "nuclear club" but the main geopolitic competitor and his power - alas in the past.

The situation is that for today the USA, basically, are capable to unlimited escalating of the strategic arms on any directions - sea, ground or air. Also the USA are capable to develop new systems of arms which are not taken into account by the contracts SNF.

Position of Russia is absolutely different. For today our nuclear potential is comparable more likely with the one of the Great Britain or France, rather than with the USA. Strategic rocket forces are more or less in operation condition from elements of a nuclear triad, though even they are deprived for today the most perspective type of arms - fighting railway complexes. Basically SRF today are rockets of mobile (on automobile platforms) and mine basing, on 90% completed with out-of-date rockets and the program of their replacement on modern types is hopelessly broken.

In conditions when all nuclear underwater fleet of the Russian Federation for today should go on write-off and replacement with new types of NPS, only 1 new NPS such as "Borej" is available, for today the new rocket of sea basing "Bulava" is at a stage of testing and there are strong reasons to believe that it will not pass to service at all or would pass but not soon. If to take into account low rates of industrial production, for the nearest decade our nuclear underwater fleet could be considered as removed from scales of history.

Situation in strategic distant aircraft is a little bit better, it even has renewed regular flights but the schedule of watch in air is such that in case of anticipatory nuclear attack of the opponent the most part of our strategic bombers has a chance to be destroyed on home airfields. Besides there is a process of obsolescence of aviation technical equipment and domestic aviation industry is not capable even to support manufacture of already existing types of planes up to the mark, not to speak of the development of new ones.

Moreover, there are questions also with maintenance at a level of parity the quantity of nuclear charges as manufacture of sharing materials should be reduced with disintegration of the USSR and obvious loss both of some deposits of radioactive materials and capacities on enrichment and processing. Details of these processes relates to a category of the most kept state secrets but the general tendency is obvious. Besides the stocks of weapon uranium and plutonium according to the transaction Gore - Chernomyrdin had been put "in storage" long time ago to the probable opponent.

It would be rather ridiculous to assume that such skilled expert as senator Lugar is not familiar with situation in our armies and in our industry. It's clear that the defensive industry of the Russian Federation is not capable to sustain new race of arms with the USA, all the more so rewriting of new contract SNF-1 should take place during that moment when domestic industry will be in addition undermined by crisis. To speak about various variants of "asymmetric answer" is simply frivolous.

One could suppose that in this situation it will be offered to us to sign the contract on conditions which will be dictated by the USA. Actually, it, probably, also will be the end of that history that was begun by M.S.Gorbachev - dismantle of last attribute of a superstate.

Аnatoly Baranov

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