Putin and Medvedev Lose Trust of Dear Russians Getting Poor

Prime-minister Vladimir Putin and president Dmitry Medvedev do not lose popularity, though the majority of citizens are displeased, for example, with how the tasks which are annually put in president's message are being carried out. Such moods, as the newspaper "Commersant" writes, experts of the Russian sociological services have revealed by results of last interrogations.

According to interrogation (20.11.2008. Estimations of Activity of the Government by Population) of Levada-Center, only 7% of Russians continue to believe that the government copes with making decisions on key economic problems "well" (there were 13% in October). The share of those who estimates activity of the government as "so-so" has almost not been changed, having risen for a month from 51% up to 53%. At the same time the share of those who consider the work of the White House "bad" became appreciably higher. In October there were 27%, now - 33% of the interrogated.

The main claim which 61% of Russians have is that the government "cannot cope with a rise in prices and decrease in a standard of living of the population". For 38% of population the main lack is that the executive authority "does not care adequately of social protection" of citizens, for 29% - that the government "cannot solve a problem of unemployment", for 26% - that the government "does not cope with crisis in economy, falling of manufacture".

Thus 31% (37% in October) of the interrogated are sure that the present authority will achieve improvements in the nearest future. 29% are sure that it will not achieve (one month ago there were 21%). 34% estimate the prospect as 50х50: may be it will achieve, may be no. Though the number of such people is also becoming less - there were 39% of them in October.

Ratings of the president Dmitry Medvedev and the head of the government Vladimir Putin are still high. On the one hand, as director of "Levada-Center" Lev Gudkov explained journalists, it's connected to peculiarities of "political culture when ordinary citizens wait for mercy and not for real activity from the first persons in authority". Therefore "concrete alarms about every day problems with salary or with work" are not being connected in mass consciousness with "the highest level of authority".

On the other hand, according to Lev Gudkov, "meanwhile crisis starts touching upon the well-fixed part of the population". The majority of the population "meanwhile are only disturbed". Only in three months, under the forecast of the sociologist, crisis "can touch upon real sector of economy". And if the government will fail to "mix consequences of crisis", mistrust of the society can be distributed also on the first persons in authority.

In the message of the president Medvedev to Federal Assembly citizens, as VCIOM found out, citizens heard first of all its anti-recessionary orientation. In the five most important tasks put by the president citizens included first of all "resolute struggle against corruption" (59%) and "overcoming of world crisis" (56%). Only 28% of citizens make significance of "strengthening of defensibility" which the president allocated as a priority. Amendments to the Constitution, egitated intellectual elite, are significant only for 11%.

Signs of Crisis - Pay Pause and the First Dismissals

As a whole, according to last sociological interrogations, 66% of interrogated estimate what's happening pessimistically or don't wait for improvement. Citizens prove their estimations and expectations by concrete examples: in opinion of 21% of participants of the same interrogation of "Levada-Center" for last month cases of pay pause (in October only 10% of respondents spoke about it) become frequent, 17% result examples of reduction of salaries (6% in October), 20% know about cases of dismissals (one month ago there were 7% of such).

On data of Federal State Statistic Service, the newspaper "The Time of News" reminds in this connection, for November, 1st employers have run into debt to their employees 4,024 billion roubles. For October the debt under salary grew at once on 1,01 billion roubles. In September debts under salary for the first time for long time exceeded 3 billion roubles. At the end of 2007 the debts under salary reached 3,4 billion roubles. In 2006 that parameter made 4,2 billion and in 2005 - 5,8 billion roubles.

At present the most part of the debts under salaries - 94,6%, or 3,81 billion roubles - was formed because organizations don't have own means. Debts under salary because of untimely receipt of means from budgets of all levels reached 216 million roubles and grew in October on 11,4%. In total for November, 1st 300 thousand Russians had debts under salary. 43% from them work in industry, 18% - in construction, manufacture of electric power, gas and water, 15% - in agriculture.

It not a singular jump, Igor Poljakov, the leading expert of the Center of Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, told the edition. In his opinion, there is a formation of trends of further growth of non-payments - both under salaries and in payments between enterprises.

In opinion of analytic, in November such tendency will proceed, but, probably, by the end of the year the situation will a little bit improve, it will be connected to execution of budgets of all levels. Money will go on a chain of state orders and will go to real sector that will help to pay off a part of the delayed debts. But in the first quarter of the next year everything can repeat once again, the debts will grow again.

"It will be worse farther, - Igor Nikolaev, director of department of the strategic analysis of company FBK is confident. - When difficulties began, real deficiency of money which was not possible to get liquidated by scale injections in bank system became apparent". The expert emphasizes that more than 90% of debts arose because enterprises didn't have own means, "that could be expected". The main problem is that no real mechanisms of knocking or braking of crisis processes are seen.

Specificity of crisis is that it develops very quickly. Approximately to the middle of the next year, in opinion of Nikolaev, is possible to expect growth of debts under salary also in budgetary sector. It is connected both to falling of the price for oil and with reduction of incomes of the state treasury in conditions of crisis when the same enterprises which have pay pauses will start reducing manufacture to minimize profit and taxes.

From editorial board: Conclusions of analysts of Levada-Center cause some questions though figures on the basis of which they are made, most likely, are quite correct. Let's admit citizens believe that the government copes with tasks in view badly. Whether they are sure that there are before the government those tasks which it declares before citizens?

Alas, results of the work of the government speak more likely about the opposite. If to look at growth of well-being of social group of superrich people, on the strange coincidence of circumstances close to the government, it is necessary to recognize simply remarkable successes. Though they, maybe, are not reflected in the official documents seen to the society.

As to the majority of the society, the government needs only one thing from it - stability. Or humility. The third of the Russians trusting the government and third more - 50 x 50 - is a magnificent result, if to take into account real social and economic indices. Moreover, 60% of Russians estimate activity of the government as more or less positive and the third is even sure that in the near future the government will achieve significant improvements! Having such people is possible to do nothing in general, only two times a year address it with sermon of humility and patience.

It is necessary to remind that the ruling class needs practically nothing from the majority of the population. Its superprofits the class of neo-feudals which interests are being represented by Putin's government receives from assignment of the natural rent which they alienate from people. Exploitation of workers as it is, assignment of a surplus value in existing system interest it in rather small degree - moreover, taxes received from the profit this government willingly directs on solving of some social problems to extinguish public discontent.

More than that, if tomorrow morid fishes will happen in Russia and population of the country would be reduced by half, it would only please ruling class, as it would reduce by half its problems with preservation of stability. Having such people the life of the government is merely a continuous pleasure...

А.B.

Send by mail

Print