Countries - Oil Parasites Are Ready to Hungry Revolts

Prices for oil futures with the beginning of the current week continued falling. For one day prices for oil fell on approximately 3,7% and the official prices for oil futures were lowered up to the lowest level for 22 months.

Results of the tenders at stock exchanges for oil contracts of the nearest deliverable month as of November, 17th made:

- in New York on New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) official price of future Light, Sweet Crude Oil (December) fell off on 2 dollars and 9 cents and was established on a mark of 54,95 dollars / barrel (the lowest parameter since January, 25, 2007) at prices under transactions for session 54,72-58,98 dollars / barrel;

- in London on InterContinental Exchange Futures Europe (IСE Futures Europe) official price of future IPE Brent Crude (January) lost 1 dollars 93 cents and was established on a mark of 52,31 dollars / barrel (the lowest parameter since January, 22, 2007) at prices under transactions for session 52,04-56,15 dollars / barrel.

The next reduction of prices on oil was caused by become stronger fears of falling of demand for energy carriers in the world because of delay of rates of economic growth in the countries of OESR. So, recession in EU was added to problems in economy of the USA. In the III quarter of the current year gross national product of 15 countries of EU decreased in relation to the last quarter on 0,2%. Its the first decrease from the moment of introduction of uniform European currency.

In the meantime recession in Japan went deep. From the beginning of 2008 gross national product of Japan went through the second quarter decrease. So, in the III quarter of the current year gross national product in real expression decreased, on the preliminary data, on 0,1% in comparison with the II quarter of the year instead of expected growth on 0,3% and in annual calculation decrease in parameter made 0,4%.

Liquidation of long positions under oil futures on November, 17th was additionally promoted by decrease in the forecast of OPEC concerning the growth of consumption of oil in the world in the current and next years.

From editorial board: Undoubtedly, recession in Japan and the European Community, as well as falling of manufacture in the USA, China and a number of other large economies should affect demand for oil and, hence, oil prices. Economies of these countries have been passing through heavy time and won't leave recession fast.

However the most difficult position waits oil-producing countries in which absolutely parasitic economy based exclusively on incomes from natural resources have been generated due to high world prices. Among parasitic petrostates, as a matter of fact, there are two types of countries - the first such as Saudi Arabia or Kuwait, Dubai and so on have created classical states - parasites where authorities generously share with citizens of the countries (Arabs) oil incomes, therefore peoples in such states have turned into a caste of parasites and all labour activity is being concentrated in the hands of migrants from various countries, deprived any civil and political rights. There steady feudal modes not capable to any independent social or technical progress developed. After sharp decrease of the oil rent migrants will be removed from these countries in the mass order (except for the most necessary experts) and the Arabian population remained will eat up saved up stocks without any attributes of serious social conflicts.

In other countries - oil parasites, such as Russia, Kazakhstan or Nigeria more explosive situation developed. Here authorities do not share oil incomes with the population a lot, as a result these richest for today states have rather poor population. Thus in Russia and Kazakhstan, as against Nigeria, in the recent past an obvious socio-cultural regress took place but a part of the population could still remember a little bit different times, had education, professional skills and, what's very important, practically had no "hypodermic fat" which would allow to undergo comfortably heavy times. Sharp reduction of oil rent will instantly be degenerated by resection of social obligations of the state and real manufacture in these countries has been long time ago superseded by import which in the recent past was much cheaper than production made inside the country. It concerns all branches - agriculture, light industry and branches of heavy industry. Mass impoverishment of the population in Russia, for example, can take place in 1-2 months if to take into account that even today almost a quarter of citizens experience difficulties with purchase of necessary food stuffs. Sharp reduction of the consumer credit has already struck poor layers of the population and expected mass dismissal of workers (which is already taking place but the most scale processes on labour market will take place the next year) will put a number of families on a verge of survival.

In such conditions prospects of deep social and political changes in Russia of 2009 become rather real and the ruling mode (as against 2005 when the national protest was simply extinguished with the help of money) except for the means of terror and direct military suppression does not have ways to put out discontent of the populace.

The authority already resorts to terror and makes more and more often - in particular, it could be confirmed by attacks of the left active workers in many regions of the country become frequent. The authority recently gives a lot of attention to the army, switching it in the accelerated rate from strategic problems to police functions. Staffs of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and FSB and other power departments are expanded to the absurd sizes. Order on amplification of struggle against the "antiRussian" political forces - structures of the opposition which didn't enter Kremlin landscape were meant - was delivered to state security departments. All this speaks about determination of authority to solve sociopolitical questions using methods of terror and suppression.

However, the quantity of losers by crisis is expected to be many times greater, than forces of reaction resisting to it. Besides the social status of militarians and militia with deterioration of financing becomes closer to broad masses, rather than to those whom these "Praetorian Guards" are called to protect.

Today all and everyone sees conceptual impasse of present authority which even at surplus of money is not capable to organize system of social production from which - that's important - the majority of the population would be fed by own labour. Instead of it authorities have organized a system of "feeding troughs" for different groups of population which are now simply empty and the process of "feeding" stops.

It's seen and understood not only by ordinary citizens but, by virtue of decent enough education, could be understood also by those who per job are called to suppress protest and to support self-consuming system. People do not want to work on self-consumption!

In a result anyhow, peacefully or not so peacefully but authority should proceed to left-oriented forces which can carry out real anti-recessionary measures and the country can become updated, with restored system of production of goods, with versatile industry, rural economy capable to provide food sufficiency to the country, with new innovative sectors of national economy where creative energy of people will be concentrated.

Having finished with parasitism in every sort from parasitism of deripaskas and abramoviches up to mass parasitism of people - oil carrier, the country will receive new senses of existence and development.

Аnatoly Baranov

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