"ïrange Revolution" Departs This Life and What about Ukraine?..

On September, 16 there should be an announcement about termination of coalition BJT and OUNSD in the Supreme Rada - the propresidential fraction declared about its exit from parliamentary majority after September, 2th when BYUT together with opposition party of regions voted for a number of bills essentially limiting powers of the president. OUNSD also declared that Timoshenko's Block should form officially coalition with Party of Regions.

During 30 days after termination of activity of coalition a new majority should be created in Rada - otherwise the president has the right to dismiss parliament and to appoint early election. President Victor Jushchenko already declared that he would take advantage of the right.

Julia Timoshenko's Block began preparation for preschedule parliamentary elections which can be appointed in Ukraine if during 30 days after the break of coalition BYUT and propresidential fraction "Our Ukraine - National Self-Defense" new majority would not be created.

"Julia Vladimirovna (ôimoshenko) ordered to the deputies to go to districts, to develop propaganda activity even in spite of the fact that the current parliamentary week - sessional one. Our headquarters are already established", - representative of BYUT said to "The Ukrainian Truth". It was said at a private meeting of fraction BYUT in the evening on Monday.

According to a source, ôimoshenko named probability of creation of coalition BYUT with OUNSD and Block of Litvin which was a question for active discussion last Monday very low.

"She said that there were only 10% of chances for it. Another 90%, as it was seen from the context, were given to early election. The theme of coalition with Party of Regions was not even actively discussed at a meeting", - the interlocutor of the edition told.

According to other sources of "The Ukrainian Truth", coalition of BYUT with Party of Regions can fail to take place because of that oppositional party appears not ready to vote under uniform bill on changes in Constitution which assume transition to parliamentary republic. Both political forces prepared changes in the Basis Law which were going to coordinate as uniform document. It was planned in it to reduce up to a minimum the power of the president.

Two thirds of the supporters of "orange" coalition in structure of Julia Timoshenko's Block (BYUT) and block "Our Ukraine - National Self-Defense" (OUNSD) were disappointed in her. Director of the National Institute of Strategic Researches - Jury Ruban - informed about it on September, 15 at press conference referring to the results of corresponding interrogation, correspondent of IA REGNUM transfers.

As he said, 42% of the Ukrainians said that they were supporters of creation of coalition in the structure of OUNSD and BYUT, however 28,4% were disenchanted with capacity of such association and only 13,6% of supporters were sure that it's necessary for keeping. At the same time, according to the results of research, 22,7% of inhabitants of the country accuse BYUT in split of majority, 18,6% - OUNSD and other 31,7% consider both political forces guilty.

Besides interrogation showed that almost half of respondents (48,6%) to some extent treats negatively coalition of BYUT and Party of Regions, 29.2% of interrogated treat it more or less positively. At the same time more than two thirds of the Ukrainians (71,1%) are sure that the parliament hasn't solve any important problem for the whole year of its work.

2011 respondents senior 18 years in all regions of Ukraine took part in the research. The error of sample makes 2,3%.

From editorial board: President Jushchenko and his block OUNSD have not simply insignificant but even no chances of breaking situation to own advantage. On the results of early election in parliament two basic players BYUT and Party of Regions will strengthen their positions, at that BYUT will strengthen them even more strongly, rather than PR. Mainly it will happen due to OUNSD.

The Communists also have chances to improve their data, though they hardly will return to a category of the basic players. They will further be doomed for unscrupulous unions but they will stay a strong player by way of formation of the future coalitions - if at forthcoming elections BYUT will not collect so many that it can become a basis of coalition itself.

Halftransit figures such as Social Party of Morozovt, Block of Litvin and Party of Vitrenko can hardly improve essentially somehow electoral prospects including by merge.

Jushchenko's Block with probability in 99,9% will split and OU will go to elections separately from NSD. It gives chances to Lutsenko to enter parliament, while most likely we won't see representatives of the president in Rada.

In such situation president Jushchenko will have only one chance to keep authority - to carry out anticonstitutional revolution in the period between dissolution and election of new Rada, that according to some attributes excites the minds of the members of presidential administration.

At that, almost under the Georgian script, the Kremlin could play into the hands of president Jushchenko in this plan having made active rhetoric of external threat. External threat can become populist motive for a capture of individual responsibility for the country "which is in danger" by the president. This antidemocratic script, actually, suits not only Moscow but also Washington - we are not talking about Bankovskaya Street.

There is a risk for Ukraine here - real democracy is the only real achievement of the country since the times of "orange revolution". Transformation of Ukraine into analogue of Pakistan frankly frightens.

á.B.

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