Ukraine Will Restrict Mobility of Black Sea Fleet of Russia and Will Draw the Fire upon Itself

Today the government of Ukraine made the decision concerning regulating of crossing by military men, military ships and planes of Black Sea Fleet of Russia basing in Crimea of the Ukrainian state border. Minister of Defence of Ukraine Jury Ehanurov informed about it. As he said, the decision provides performance of the corresponding decree of the president Victor Jushchenko by all services - frontier guard duty, customs and military department. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation already regarded Jushchenko's decree as the antiRussian step contradicting to the spirit and letter of the agreements related to Black Sea Fleet of Russia and friendship treaty.

Projects of resolutions about activity of Black Sea Fleet of Russia on the Ukrainian territory were accepted by the National Security Council and considered by the government in the beginning of summer but they were not signed then by prime-minister Julia Timoshenko. Secretariat of the President accused Тimoshenko of blocking of the given resolution.

On August, 13 Victor Jushchenko ratified the decision of the National Security Council about the order of crossing of the Ukrainian frontier by military men, ships and planes of Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation. There was no session of the National Security Council, it was carried out "by telephone interrogation", not having asked opinion of Timoshenko and the chapter of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. The chief of the Joint Staff of armed forces of Ukraine general Sergey Kirichenko declared that "the Ukrainian militarians will carry out orders of the president related to the movings of Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation". At the same time the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Kiev informed that "the Ukrainian party is not going to interfere with the process of activity and management of Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation but reserves the right to supervise those who are in its territory".

Explaining the logic of the resolution of the National Security Council, Jushchenko said: "Now the Russian seamen can freely move on the Ukrainian territory on an on-call basis with corresponding competent bodies of Ukraine". However "the Ukrainian party insists on providing permissive mode of moving of military divisions", - Jushcchenko noticed.

- There is certain logic in resolution of the Ukrainian president but it is a logic of completely different situation, - editor-in-chief of FORUM.msk Anatoly Baranov explained. It's the logic of forester Mitrich during Kursk fight. Whether Ukraine can prevent movings of the Russian fleet, say, during such situation which developed in Georgia? It is obvious that it's not possible. But it can mess about, detaining from time to time the Russian military men, beat them - that is to act the same way the Georgian military men and policemen do with the Russian peacemakers after coming to power of Saakashvili when they were being squeezed out from Georgia. President Jushchenko has an opportunity to model his actions, to predict their consequences - there is an example.

Let's say, the chapter of the committee on questions of national safety and defense Anatoly Gritsenko in interview to "Mirrow of the Week" openly says: "Decision about non-permission of ships of Black Sea Fleet of Russia to the base in Sevastopol is possible to execute in different ways but - whether the president of Ukraine is ready giving the order to bear then the responsibility for quite predicted negative consequences of such a step?"

Then he asks a question: "How should Ukraine build now the dialogue with Russia so that not to lose national dignity and not to aggravate relations with northern neighbour, especially, so that not to get into a trap in which Saakashvili and Georgia got?"

- Unfortunately, president Jushchenko behaves not so that to prevent the conflict at the drop of a hat but as if on the contrary wishing to achieve response from Moscow, - Anatoly Baranov considers. - People in Ukraine and Russia are already discussing various scripts of intrusions of Russia into Crimea, into East Ukraine and so on. The majority of scripts are obviously "imaginative", not taking into account even features of the district, transport arteries, forces and means of the opponent parties. But the fact of discussion is remarkable - as if public is getting prepare to war. Though the same Gritsenko estimates professional approach of the Ukrainian management to military situations extremely low:

"Much to our regret the president didn't immediately collect National Security and Defense Council which he headed. He didn't withdraw from holidays secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, all ministers, heads of special services and the law enforcement bodies included into the Council as well as the heads of military investigation and frontier guard service, the chapter of own Secretariat. Result - nobody organized strictly coordinated round-the-clock work in condition of situational rooms at interdepartmental level. Streams of operative information are not regulated, there is no system analysis of all acting information with getting variants of actions - thought out, coordinated, realistic. Therefore on behalf of the state applications and requirements which performance it, the state, is unable to defend and provide are being sounded (...) Therefore one of intelligence services on August, 8 (!) in writing reports upward that everything's quiet, when all over the world it's already known that there is a war on Caucasus".

Estimating readiness of the Ukrainian army for war, Gritsenko is extremely skeptical: "State program of development of Armed forces of Ukraine for the period till 2011 which has been developed in Ministry of Defence, coordinated by two governments (of Timoshenko and Еhanurov), maintained by members of the NSDC of Ukraine and commissioned by the decree of the president (...) is not carried out in full volume. First of all because of insufficient financing. Prime-minister promised to allocate 2% of gross national product but hardly more than 1% was allocated. It means the program will be broken. There will be no technical reequipment of army on modern systems of arms, first of domestic origin which can be already produced by military and industrial complex (...) It's already clear that for the next one and a half year Jushchenko will not execute his pre-election pledge - to create professional contract army up to the end of 2010 without alarm works (...) I am forced to ascertain, much to our regret, minister Ehanurov broke performance of the Program of development of forces of special actions. It's not the question of the budget or Ministry, it's a question of Ministry of Defense within the framework of that budget which is allocated. This year it was provided additional 300 million grivnas on special troops".

- There are no bases not to trust Gritsenko, he is a knowing person, as against, we shall say, from military minister Ehanurov, "brother - twin" of our Serdyukov, - Anatoly Baranov makes comments. - No matter how weakened is the Russian army now, condition of the Ukrainian army is even more depressing. In situation of the conflict on the Crimean peninsula Ukraine is practically deprived of fleet, it cannot support its units on peninsula from the sea including ammunition and foodstuffs, it will undoubtedly be cut off from continent by a series of airimpacts on two transport arteries on Perekop and Chongara as well as on Аrbatskaya Strelka. Aeromobility of the Ukrainian army is even lower, than of the Russian one. Besides impacts on not numerous air stations of Crimea will deprive of opportunity of additional movement of armies and military equipment - the Ukrainian parts deployed in Crimea appear in blockade in own territory during the first minutes of hypothetical war. While impact on warehouses in Novobogdanovka will deprive of not only ammunition but also will stop movement both on highway "Crimea" and by railway at least for a week. Transition to a contract system of complement sharply reduces mobilization reserves - one-and-a-half-million Russian army can wage war in Ukraine not assuming to mobilization, while 200-thousand Ukrainian - can't. Ukraine is not capable to carry out fast mobilization, education and equipment of one million of reserve men in the shortest terms. Ukraine will lose Crimea within several days and, having faced the threat of impact on nuclear stations, will capitulate. It will not have possibility to draw counterthrust. The terms of development of own nuclear weapon which we were writing about on FORUM.msk in detail, were already hopelessly missed by its management".

- There is only one way out from it, - Anatoly Baranov noted. - Having completely failed the work on strengthening of own defensibility Ukraine needs to stop up its ambitions and not to irritate Moscow. To keep democracy which impotents from Bankovskaya Street obviously are not capable to protect is necessary to endow independent foreign policy - well, actually, Ukraine never had it. Anyway, constant attempts to make Russia act sharply - is obviously someone's external order as the Ukrainian interests here are not seen. Though, certainly, if independence of policy consists in pleasing Washington which intensity in Black Sea region needs extremely both politically and economically, then everything is all right. Ukraine can be simply sacrificed... "

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