Central Bank changed the forecast on outflow of the capital from the country, having raised indicator from $8,7 billion to $22 billion. For three quarters of 2010 outflow made $16 billion. Earlier this enormous money remained in the country thanks to the facilitated mechanism of investments into the Russian economy. Though as a rule they were invested not into "factories, newspapers, steamships" which investment appeal falls year after year but into the Russian real estate - actually huge financial pyramid substantiated in glass and concrete.
Who invested into the Russian real estate? Mainly those whom exit to the West was for some reasons hardly possible. A person who would never make a deal in any decent country and even would be forbidden to make tourist visa could come to Russia with a bag of money still keeping traces of blood and teeth and buy apartment with an eye to the Kremlin - no one and never would ask him "where he took money from".
Our feeble-minded Nazis fight with illegal migration of Tajik street cleaners and Uzbek builders while real problems are caused by mechanism of illegal migration of assets formed at mayor Luzhkov and other prominent personalities - not desirable migrants follow their not desirable asset not in public cars or break buses but in "Maserati" and "Porsche" and their documents are in full order. Objectively it's new elite of the capital and big cities - they are allowed "to do everything". Cultural needs of such citizens are possible to describe as the desire to go by father's jeep across eternal light.
However, everything that has the beginning has its end - prices for real estate can't get higher forever, especially in cities where the mere presence of the owners of that real estate sharply worsens quality of life. Economy of RF grows slowly (growth of GDP in 2010 made 3,8% instead of 4.5% awaited, in 2011 it won't exceed 4%), while inflation could surpass the forecast by 1%.
Here you are - volume of proposals in the market of the capital real estate steadily exceeds demands. Pyramid is not being ruined at present but considerably subsides. If last year dollar prices in the real estate market grew by 3% and it was less than inflation, it means that prices remain practically the same for last 1.5 year - while money loses value. Let's compare - in 1998 the price of a cup of coffee in network capital café cost 0,5-1,0 dollar, in 2011 - already 4 dollar. Price for transport grew thrice since 1998. Minimum consumer basket - at one and the same set of products and services - also grew thrice.
Every serious shock - either next devaluation of rouble, growth of a number of intra-ethnic collisions or political crisis - could cause collapse of this main pyramid of the country which adopted a role of pyramid of T-bills of the end of 90-s. It will be the end. Not likely that present mode has new cabinet of Primakov-Maslykov-Geraschenko which could suddenly save the country. By the way crisis today is deeper and more heavier - it's true system crisis.
So, follow prices in the real estate market - it's "the magic skin" for the state under the name RF.
Anatoly Baranov, editor-in-chief of FORUM.msk
