Not Ready to War!

The Russian Federation Takes Rick of Loosing due to Stupidity and Laziness of the Supreme Authority

So, the first in a history war between former republics of the USSR broke out - there were intrarepublican wars before. Besides, the Russian army for the first time from the conflict on island Damansky (1969) faced regular opponent - up to that there were wars with irregular enemies having no armoured vehicles, air defene or artilleries.

What do we see? Confusion. Improvisation. Putridity and powerlessness of a "white - blue-red" mode. And rather big risk to lose this war.

ONLY BLITZKRIEG!

The unique strategy of the Russian Federation in this case could be only blitz operation on withdrawal of Georgia from war, maximum - three-day duration. How it should look like?
The first: immediate recognition of the Republic of South Ossetia and Abkhazia - creation of the legislative ground for introduction of armies to South Ossetia (we help the sovereign state). Which, most likely, will ask to accept it in the structure of the Russian Federation.
The second: carrying out of beforehand prepared massed offensive air operation: with route of the Air Forces and air defence of Georgia, congestions of artillery and other combat technique of Georgia, with impacts on its power supply system, stores of fuel, communications. The most important part of such operation - suppression of artillery positions of the Georgians near Tskhinvali, gain here of full domination in air. Aim - strategic paralysis of Georgia.
For this purpose it was necessary to create a strong aviation grouping having pulled the best parts of the Air Forces from all Russian Federation together to North Caucasus.

The third. Together with overland forces to enter strong artillery grouping in Tskhinvali (SP gun and systems of salvo shellfire) together with sufficient forces of investigation and experts - forward air controllers. With pilotless complexes of investigation and aiming. Which, in case of unavailability, should be ordered in private companies. The Americans, hastily preparing for war with Iraq in 1991 acted the same way. There is no need to search for the examples. We shall say, there is Kazan company "Falcon" which already showed at exhibitions pilotless plane DANEM. It is capable to keep in air till fifteen hours accelerating speed up to 180-300 km/h! Such devices could provide continuous patrolling of approaches of Tskhinvali, constant supervision over moving of the Georgian armies.
There are also others remarkable pilotless planes of private concerns - where there is a will, there is a way.

It was necessary to give to armies in Tskhinvali two - three complexes "Zoo" - self-propelled installations with radar which allow to trace trajectories of flight of enemy shells, rockets and mines - and thus to mark exact arrangement of batteries of the enemy. ("Zoo - 1" - creation of Tula scientific research institute "Strela"). The data of "zoos" should operatively go to our artillery and aircraft.
What was done from it? Well, practically nothing!
Whether there was time to get prepared? There was. The first threat to start war with Georgia was made already in September, 2002. For six years plans should be worked out excellently. But there was absolutely nothing made! Everything which chekist-sobchak's macaques undertake to do - turns out to get topsy-turvy. "White - blue-red" were too occupied: it was necessary to gather money, to appoint furniture dealers Ministers of Defence, to get engaged in withdrawal of military academies from Moscow, etc. While now we to pay off for it with blood of our Russian guys. Actions of the Russian Federation remind convulsive improvisation on the move.

IMPROVISATION?
The war continues for the second day - but Moscow is not going to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Political will - is not present
The state TV works worse than ever: there is no either a map of a battlefield, or designations of positions of the Georgians, or marks of impacts of our forces on them in news broadcast. In fact the Soviet TV during war in Lebanon and on Falklands in 1982 did it, it was also done by the Russian TV in 90s years. Yes, degradation of Putin's TV went far! It is felt that Ministry of Defence didn't create any connection with TV.
Aviation impacts are made by spread wide fingers. The first day - loss of at least two vehicles. Air bases of Georgia are not destroyed, its Air Defence is not suppressed. Apparently, it was not planned at all. It is clear: old, of the Soviet construction vehicles are used in the fighting. Pilots of "the Russian school" who have forgotten about training, having no skills of overcoming of air force defence, flying once in a year, compelled to live on half of a salary of the most worthless office manager. It is already seen that there are neither enough antiradar rockets X-25, or containers of radio-electronic struggle for suppression of air defence of Georgia. It is seen that the Russian Federation did not concentrate properly bomb-assault shelves as the USSR did during operation in Pandzhsher in 1984. Probably, the Russian Federation can only dream of opportunities of the Union. Here you are a true state of affairs in the Air Forces, not PR-varnished picture.

We see that the aircraft didn't suppress the Georgian artillery in the vicinities of Tskhinvali - and it continues to strike on the Russian armies almost in a straight line. There is no normal contra-battery struggle. It is already seen that there are not enough air controllers. There is desperate need for pilotless scouts - drones. There is need in the systems of slavo fire "Tornado". The ruin of the army - is seen. The worsened variant of the Soviet army of maximum year 1987 is at war in Georgia. What else amazes? They try to replace everything with advance of armoured vehicle and motorized rifle. "Fresh" strategy: we'll drive on tanks - and enemy having got frightened will capitulate. It was not efficient either in Afghanistan in 1980s, or in the Chechen Republic in 1995. And the Georgians were also not frightened, having continued to carry terrible firepower against us. They informed with aspiration about advance of Air Landing Troops and task forces into Tskhinvali. Do you want to press artillery by means of task forces, cows-generals? You decided to use special troops as infantry and not as diversionary-intelligence divisions, did you? And Air Landing Forces - with their facilitated weapon - also decided to make infantry as in 41st? Do you want to cover your stupidity and incompetence with their courage and self-sacrifice?
I'll keep silent about electronic combat and suppression of the Georgian communication, about destruction of a power supply system of Georgia.

UNDER THE LONG SCRIPT
Blitzkrieg was unique chance to finish quickly with Georgia, to divide it - and to pin down all world to facts. Now the chance, I am afraid, is lost.
War has all chances to pass into the most pernicious for the Russian Federation form - long one. For this time the Georgians will achieve global world howling of mass-media in relation to the Russian aggressors. The Russian Federation will have significant economic losses and also moral ones. To expose itself before all world as suffered defeat from small Georgia? Shit, it's - the end of a mode!
And if Georgia will achieve that the USA will start transference of the weapon by air bridge as it was in case with Israel in 1973? If complexes of air defence such as "Patriot", the newest ATGM, artillery systems, armoured vehicle will go to Georgia? The USA have so many weapon - you can have as many as you wish... If transference of warplanes with pilots - "volunteers" employed by the private military companies will begin into Georgia? Well - the USA have the right to render such help in reply to the request of Tbilisi. Can you imagine, what our soldiers waits in that case?
The situation when Black Sea will be entered by carrier-based grouping of the USA for protection of Georgia from air and integrated airgroup of the countries of NATO will arrive to Azerbaijan to help air space of Georgia is possible. Moreover at support of planes - radars (and flying command centers) such as Аwacs. There is such a precedent - help of the Air Forces of the USSR to Northern Korea in 1950-1953. Westerners can also help with "nonlethal weapon": with planes of radio-electronic investigation and radiosuppression. Up to here.
What does then Moscow can do if such will happen?
Putridity and powerlessness of white - blue-red mode appear in everything. It concerns both economy and war. The present ruling clique risks to get its Tsushima.

From editorial board: As a whole I completely share estimations of the fighting capacity of the Russian army of a sample of 2008 resulted by Maxim Kalashnikov, it is necessary to note that the Russian Federation got a "worthy" opponent. All the same Putin is a genius of luck, otherwise he would break a neck and would ruin the country long time ago - there were enough cases.

So, we see that the opponent of the Russian army appeared to be a military force even more confused.

All the same march of armoured column of the Russian army on mountain district with its immediate brining into action is firm four with plus of the 58-th army and two of the Georgian army. We shall recollect even shamefully stretched American columns during march to Bagdad, when all world was amazed why they were not shoot as in a dash.

So, we observe as PR-ed (and received under it large western means) Georgian army failed to carry out quite simple fighting task - to conquer a city which was defended by the opponent some times conceding in number. Underestimation of the value of air support of armies took place. In a result - not having had time to be fixed on the positions seized the Georgian army was compelled to recede, sustaining losses.

By the way, about losses. The Russian side declares about 15 victims and about 80 people with various degrees of severity.

The Georgian side - about 85 dead and several hundreds of wounded men.

Is this a ratio of losses of offensive and defensive armies? They as though interchanged, that speaks about low quality of the Georgian army - in fact it battles, as Maxim Kalashnikov truly noted, with "worsened variant of the Soviet army of maximum year 1987".

Full smashup also with propaganda maintenance of the Russian operation. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs repeats the message of the Ossetic press centre about 2 thousand victims in Tskhinvali, Lukin already demands to carry out the tribunal. It is very serious moment which allows to pronounce the most terrible word of a modern world policy - "genocide". It's possible after genocide to get separated and define itself, to enter in the United Nations and so on.

Where are they, victims?

At losses of the army in 15 people the loss of the peace population in modern war can be 10 times higher but not 100 times! Here, there is a reporting from bombed republican hospital in Tskhinvali - it's informed about 200 wounded men and 15 died in the hospital mortuary. Where another 1985 corpses are? Who counted them?

I had to see places of mass death of people - it's such a "picture" which can't be hidden. Where is this picture? Why it's seen?

Or they have talked nonsense again?..

It was another luck - Saakashvili ordered to disconnect Georgia from Ru-zone. That is he disunited information spaces of Russia and Georgia, thus having deprived himself of opportunity to influence public opinion in Russia. In result the Russian media operate completely exclusively, under the full control of the Kremlin.

Well, with such opponent it is possible to be at war and even quite successfully. It looks like, instead of "humanitarian help" in riding breeches and with M-16 the Georgian president will be compelled to be responsible for inefficiently spent means as well as for material part of the Georgian army which was lost within 2 days of not too intensive bombardments. We shall recollect Serbia which didn't lose from NATO bombardments any plane or tank. We also compare. The Georgian militarians not only have not estimated necessity of own Air Forces but also have not taken into consideration the Air Forces of the probable opponent.

Well, the Russian Federation still can win the Georgians...

Аnatoly Baranov, editor-in-chief of FORUM.msk

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