George Friedman, the founder and the head of the American analytical center "Stratfor" in the application to Wall Street Journal tries to answer a question:
Whether the USA and Israel really prepare for war with Iran?
Iran, Dzafari promised, in case of external aggression will "easy" block Strait of Hormuz through which more than 25% of world oil are being transported. "Taking into account existing conditions and also equipment of our armed forces we can easily close Strait of Hormuz for unlimited time", - the commander the Corps of Guards of Islamic Revolution declared. According to Dzafari, the new sea weapon which the Islamic Republic possesses can strike the ships of the opponent in radius of 300 kilometers from the borders of Iran.
Similar threats on the part of Islamic Republic already sounded in the beginning of July: Dzafari warned that Iran will block Strait of Hormuz and will take under its control navigation in Persian Gulf, if the country will undergo aggression. Commander of the 5-th navy fleet of the USA vice-admiral Kevin Kosgriff promised that the USA would not allow Iran to block Strait of Hormuz. "More than 25% of world oil are transported using these sea lines... and we do not presume to place obstacles to in any party", - vice-admiral declared.
Meanwhile, the term of ultimatum presented by "great six" to Iran expired. The Islamic republic should accept a package of privileges and stimulus, otherwise sanctions against Teheran will be toughened. The high-ranking official of the European Community declared that meanwhile there is no answer from the Iranian side.
Minister for Foreign Affairs Frank - Valter Schteinmeier called Iran to respond to appeal of the world community and to give "comprehensible answer". "Our offer demands fast and clear answer", - minister said.
Hard line concerning the terms is occupied by Israel and the USA. The representative of the American administration declared that "generous offer was made to Iran". If Teheran will reject it, it will entail "the most serious consequences". Representatives of the European Community called not to force intensity, they are not against "waiting for some days more".
Let's remind the Iranian government rejects a deadline established by the western countries for giving the answer to a package of initiatives on peace settlement of crisis around the nuclear program of Islamic republic. Meanwhile, political analyst of FORUM.msk Ruslan Saidov believes that "impact of Israel across Iran, if it in general will take place, can be put this autumn as there is no sense to postpone it".
Meanwhile, the commander-in-chief of the Corps of Guards of Islamic Revolution Моhammad Ali Dzafari explained to the Iranian journalists the details of military strategy of Teheran. As he said,
In case of possible aggression Iran will aspire "to play for time".
In opinion of the Iranian military leader, "in case of hypothetical war enemies will try to reduce maximally time frameworks of the conflict". "We, in our turn, shall make efforts to buy time to have an opportunity to take advantage of the rocket potential and also other weapon in the full", - Dzafari frankly told to the reporters.
"Certainly, we shall try also in the first minutes after the beginning of war to apply defensive power to the full to strike the enemy", - he informed.
It is underlined in the publication that the theme of the future war is for several months being discussed on the pages of world mass-media. It's not a subject of the discussion that in case of the beginning of operations prices for oil will grow.
Friedman specifies that on background of amplifying diplomatic pressure upon Teheran rumours that Israel and the USA prepare for the beginning of military operation appeared. The American journalist, the winner Pulitzer Prize Sejmur Khersch, in July issue of magazine New Yorker asserts that Bush's administration could give an order to begin war with Iran till January, 2009, before the present president would transfer a post to the successor. Khersch, referring to own sources, informs that the USA and Israel receive information from agents in Iran which collect intelligence data and try to destabilize conditions before possible attack.
George Friedman, making comments on this article, writes that the prospect of the American or Israeli attack on nuclear objects of Iran looks remote as economic risks from this step are much higher, than potential benefit.
As he said, position of America which laid the cards on the table brought certain advantage. Thus Friedman marks that Washington and Teheran after 29 years of enmity recently take steps for renewal of relations.
Friedman among whose clients are government agencies, the largest publishing centers and trading giants, for example, such as network of retail shops Wal-Mart Inc, asserts that the USA and Israel conduct "psychological attack" instead of preparing for real military actions.
Under his forecast, during military actions oil tankers and platforms in Strait of Hormuz through which 40% of all oil delivered by sea ways pass could be attacked. He marks that the USA could carry out "express - attack" on the rocket batteries basing at coast but it hardly would be possible to be limited only to it.
"Because of war prices for oil would exceed 300 dollars for barrel. Even if this jump will take place only for short time, it will lead to catastrophic consequences for economic and stock exchanges", - chapter of "Stratfor" asserts.
"Stratfor" is the private organization which is engaged in forecasting of geopolitic processes, in the USA it's called "shadow CIA". Before to give to the client the report on the ordered theme employees of agency study local newspapers, governmental applications, Internets - sites and also use the data received from own sources in the various countries.
