At Solving of Defensive Problems Russia Will Oftener Lean on Nuclear Forces. Ukraine Will Probably Do the Same

 

Minister of Defence of the USA Robert Gates making public speech in the state Virginia before officers of the Air Forces of the USA declared that the role of a nuclear arsenal for protection against potential enemies of America would only grow as there's a probability that the nuclear weapon could be found out in hands of the antiAmerican unions or such states as Iran.

Plan of Russia to gain its nuclear power also cause concern of the head of Ministry of Defence of the USA. "It is clear that the Russians will concentrate their actions on increase of the nuclear power in the future. The fact that Russia more and more builds upon nuclear force and not upon usual types of arms confirms importance of expansion of our nuclear arsenal as modern force and means of restraint", - Gates declared.

Russia, trying to restore a role on a world scene after crisis of the postSoviet years, increases expenses for military needs so that, as it's declared in Moscow, to create well equipped and mobile army but, in opinion of the American analysts, not very much of a success.

"Actually Russia does not spend big means for needs of usual, non-nuclear types of arms. It's quite explainable in view of many reasons, demographic and so on", - Robert Gates explained.

In the meantime yesterday Vladimir Putin promised to the army stable financing of serial purchases of modern arms. Putin said that armies would receive in due course the newest samples in mass scale. "Our task - to pass from purchases of separate types of the arms, separate samples to serial deliveries of new military technique to the army", - prime-minister informed.

As political analyst of FORUM.msk Ruslan Saidov says, "promises to pass to large-lot purchases of arms and military technique for the Russian army are being heard for some years but nothing happens as Russia has lost ability to produce large batches though for the present there are still opportunities for production of small batches or, at least, individual samples.

Moreover, as the reserve in military industrial complex created at the USSR is close to exhaustion failures in military - technical cooperation of Russia with foreign states started happening. Thus China sharply reduces volumes of purchases of arms in Russia, while censures to quality of production and infringement of delivery terms of orders in frameworks of military-technical cooperation are being heard from the part of India and Algeria.

Moreover, as the reserve in ÷ðë, created at the USSR is close to exhaustion, failures in military - technical cooperation of Russia with the foreign states have begun. So, China sharply reduces volumes of purchases of arms in Russia, and on the part of India and Algeria censures to quality of production and failures of terms of performance of orders in frameworks ÷ôó are heard.

However, Russia does not have serious stimulus for a large-lot production of conventional armaments and technique and their delivery in armies as there are no local conflicts taking place now. As against 1999-2002 years when there were real fights on Northern Caucasus and there was a threat of penetration of Talibs to Central Asia.

By the way, Anatoly Kvashnin's Russian army 7-9 years ago, in my opinion, was considerably more effective in local conflicts, than it's now. Though if the third Russian-Chechen war happens, even in the present condition the Russian army would finally overcome Chechens. But there will be no war as the Chechen Republic learned through a series of painful incidents will not allow to provoke itself, no recklesses like Basayev's and Khattab's intrusion to Dagestan will be permitted.

As to the strategic nuclear weapon, in 10-15 years there will not be systems of the Soviet manufacture on arms. There will, probably, appear few cruise missiles of air basing such as T-555 and a few POD of the project 955 with ballistic missiles such as "Bulava" from postSoviet systems which sooner or later with certain subquality work nevertheless will pass into service.

After 2020 year different updatings of a ballistic missile "Topol-M" will make a basis of strategic nuclear forces power of Russia. There will be not little more than hundred units of mine and mobile types of basing in variants of fighting equipment both with one and several warheads.

Till the time the USA will acquire anti-missile systems of next-higher order, than the ones they have now on Alaska and in California and plan to have in the East Europe, the Russian strategic nuclear forces will undoubtedly keep potential of guaranteed nuclear restraint".

Meanwhile, Ukraine does not exclude prospects of using of opportunities of the Ukrainian centers of missile warning system in Sevastopol and íukachevo in the interests of strengthening of system of international safety, informed the high-ranking source of "Interfax" in military circles of Ukraine.

"Taking into account that in connection with the decision of Moscow about withdrawal from the agreement with Ukraine on means of missile warning system, information received from these units is represented superfluous for direct needs of Ukraine, an opportunity of modernization of Radio Detection and ranging Equipment with prospect of the subsequent integration into global anti-missile system is considered", - the interlocutor of the agency said.

"These stations - one of the elements of anti-missile systems in depth and expenses for their modernization are not so great. In case we shall find partners interested in their high-grade operation, our units will be claimed in the interests of strengthening of system of international safety", - he added.

According to expert estimations, exploitation of the Ukrainian RDRE in íukachevo and Sevastopol in a context of prospects of integration of these objects into global anti-missile system of the USA is impossible without carrying out of their modernization. The volume of expenses for modernization is estimated in the sum over 25% of a project cost, agency marks.

On June, 13th the president of Ukraine Victor Jushchenko is going to visit the Southern Machine-Building Factory in Dnepropetrovsk and also to familiarize himself with offers and opportunities related to further use of missile warning systems and the systems of space control located in Sevastopol and íukachevo.

Let's remind that in the beginning of June Russia confirmed that is refused from use of the Ukrainian radars "Dnepr". The assistant to the commander of Space armies of the Russian Federation Alexander Lopatin declared on June, 2th that the Russian missile warning system could function not receiving information from the Ukrainian Radio Detection and Ranging Equipment in íukachevo and Sevastopol. As he said RDRE which was built in Armavir (Krasnodar territory) was capable to cover southwest rocket-dangerous direction on which former Soviet stations in íukachevo and Sevastopol were focused.

Radars "Dnepr" near Sevastopol and íukachevo were accepted into operation in 1979. At disintegration of the USSR radars became the property of Ukraine. In 1992 Moscow and Kiev signed the intergovernmental lease of stations within 15 years with a payment at a rate of 840 thousand dollars. According to the Russian - Ukrainian agreement, information from those Radio Detection and Ranging Equipments conducting supervision over a space above the Central and Southern Europe and also over the Mediterranean passed to the central command point (Solnechnogorsk) of Space armies of the Russian Federation.

In February, 2006 Ministry of Defence of Ukraine raised the question about increase of payment for maintenance of Radio Detection and Ranging Equipment by Russia. Radio Detection and Ranging Equipment was transferred to management of the civil National Space Agency of Ukraine. In 2006 the volume of indemnifications by the Russian Federation of expenses of the Ukrainian side was increased almost twice and, on data NSAU, made one and a half million dollars. Similar volume of indemnification was paid in 2007 and was preliminary coordinated for the year 2008.

On February, 12, 2008 the president of Russia signed a law "About Denouncement of the Agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Government of Ukraine about Means of Missile Warning Systems and Space Control".

The head of the Ukrainian editorial staff of FORUM.msk Vladimir Filin doubts that the Ukrainian Radio Detection and Ranging Equipment can help perspective American anti-missile system in Europe: "Connection of Ukraine to the program of global system can have certain political sense but military expediency here is not more, than in Vladimir Putin's offer to the USA to use Radio Detection and Ranging Equipment "Darjal" in Azerbaijan against Iran. Neither "Darjal", not the Ukrainian "Dnepry" are capable to replace to the Americans Radio Detection and Ranging Equipment in Czechia.

Aggressive nuclear arms which we refused in 1995 in Budapest, having received from Russia and the USA official guarantees of independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine - is different case.

But in view of devaluation of the Russian guarantees and blocking of the joining of Ukraine NATO by Germany refusal from Budapest obligations, returning the nuclear status to Ukraine and, on the basis of tactical aircraft, the rate on nuclear restraint would be the most simple and, I'll stress it, rather quickly realizable way out".