Whether Attempt on Medvedev in Barnaul Was Planned by Chekists Who Don’t Agree with His Promotion?

The site of radical Islamites of Caucasus CC commented on publications of mass-media, in particular, of "Commersant", about ostensibly planned attempt on Dmitry Medvedev during his visit of Barnaul on February, 13th. It was informed in the anonymous warning letter to local agency "Bankfax" that in case of failure of the attempt polling districts of Barnaul can fly up on air on March, 2nd in the day of elections.

The grouping "Wars of Sacred Jihad of Northern Asia" which was supposed to be responsible for Medvedev's liquidation was generated on the territory of Siberia one and a half year ago. Altai territory was chosen because of the closeness of Kazakhstan's borders, so, after liquidation it is possible to go abroad and to cover up traces.

In the meantime FSB which, under the version of CC, indulged conspirators, made "completely false" application that ostensibly "a person who sent a notice about an attempt is found". As Gazeta.ru transfers, referring to the agency "Altapress", "the sender of the letter was found in Barnaul. It's 19-years old young man whose name was established already on the 14^th of February. Nothing's said about his motives".

"It is interesting, how it possible to find the Russian young man who now will undergo brutal tortures to receive "voluntary and frank confession" "already on the 14^th of February", if FSB made its visit to Internet - cafe "Plasma" in Barnaul from which the warning letter was sent aiming to get away computers only in the night from 14^th to 15^th of February, CC asks rhetorical question. - And why the Office of Public Prosecutor declared to the newspaper "Commersant" on the 20^th of February that it found nobody, while on the 21^st of February, when the scandal with connivance of local security officers to conspirators was poured out by a wide stream in mass-media, the sender of the letter "was found" at once.  

"It is obvious that the sender of the letter "was found so operatively" could be explained by the fact that some hours before CC directly accused FSB of connivance to conspirators. The application of Investigatory committee wonderfully followed right after CC published its charge to address of FSB".

One more question. How an extraneous young man could know about Medvedev's voyage to Barnaul so that to send the warning somre days prior, if all plans of the successor appear in the public only at the latest moment. So, about Medvedev's trip to Kazan on the 21^st of February, city dwellers learned only late at night on February, 20th.

Making comments on the story with ostensibly prepared attempt on íedvedev, political analyst of FORUM.msk Ruslan Saidov said:

"It is difficult to say, whether "Wars of Sacred Jihad of Northern Asia" exists in reality or it's invention of the chekists from the beginning up to the end. Chekist quite often create false Jihad groupings on Northern Caucasus so that then to pretend to carry out struggle and in practice they are engaged in joint commercial activity using them at the same time in frameworks of "strategy of intensity".

The most known example - Karachaevo's group of Achemez Gochijaev which was made responsible for explosions of houses in 1999 during the time of Putin's being a successor and obviously was going to be made also for the "drillings" in Ryazan if they would end with the same result as before in Moscow and Volgodonsk. Not less known example - "Nord-Ost" where Movsar Baraev, the relative of the known agent of special services and kidnapper Arbi Baraev, was responsible for capture of hostages.

As to the threats to Medvedev, there is nothing here to be surprised. íedvedev obviously does not suit to certain chekists's circles which would prefer Vladimir Putin to remain in the Kremlin. All means are good for this purpose".

Meanwhile, Andrew Kachins, director of the Russian and Euroasian programs of the Center of Strategic and International Researches in Washington and earlier - director of the Moscow center of Carnegie on questions of foreign policy and safety of Russia again reminded of himself. Kachins answered questions of readers of BBCRussian.com.

As you know, in December all Russian mass-media wrote about Kachins. Report of CSIS "Alternative Ways of the Future of Russia till 2017" appeared in the center of scandal, one of the variants of succession of events of the beginning of 2008 was the version of attempt on Putin considered in it. Below you can see the most interesting from our point of view questions to Kachins and his answers.

Why the version about attempt appeared? Whence in general versions of such type appear? Why not to consider the version about global accident or, say, revolution?

I used this hypothetical script to emphasize one feature of Russia distinguishing it from other existing and future great powers. Political system is extremely centralized in Russia and in the greater degree depends on concrete
persons, in this case - on Putin. This dependence is much more essential, than in other political cultures where structures of management outside of executive branch of authority are more developed. It would be exaggeration to say that historical development of Russia completely depends on one person but, it seems to me, in Russia more, than, say, in the USA or the countries of Europe depends on the leader.

However long time Putin and íedvedev will work together? Whether Medvedev can become independent politician to carry out necessary, in his opinion, reforms?

I do not believe in durability of a team Putin - íÅdvedev. I think and I hope that Putin's readiness to become the prime minister is connected with desire to help thus íÅdvedev to consolidate authority in the hands. If íÅdvedev will show qualities of the leader, I expect that Putin will gradually leave from a political stage and will engage himself in something different. If íÅdvedev appears to be unable to operate the country then, I think, Mister Putin will return and again will stande in the head of the state.
I believe that íÅdvedev can gradually get bigger independence, one shouldn't underestimate his potential. In my opinion, eight years ago many underestimated Putin's potential to become independent leader in the same way and there were among them also those who helped him to come to power.

Whether president Medvedev will dare to dismiss Putin from a post of the prime minister?

It seems to me improbable. More likely Putin will retire by his own will, if he will feel that all goes well and íÅdvedev corresponds to the post of the president. While if it will not go smoothly, then with greater probability Medvedev will have to leave having left presidential place to Putin.

Whether Putin will return to power in or till 2012?

Such opportunity exists but it difficult to predict it. If Medvedev's government will be successful, Putin will not return. Certainly, I cannot make a prediction but intuition prompts me that Putin would prefer not to become president again but to take pleasure in from normal life.

What do You think, whether efficient opposition which will have plenty of supporters can be formed in future in Russia?

Certainly, there could appear in Russia numerous and powerful opposition but meanwhile there are no preconditions that it will take place in the near future. If authorities cannot justify growing expectations of the population then, probably, stronger opposition can appear. If incomes from oil and gas will be sharply reduced in connection with a collapse of prices, the Russian economy will suffer very much and it also can lead to discontent in society.

What do You think, what rearrangements in the government of the Russian Federation will take place after presidential elections? How the structure of the government (quantity of ministries, vice-premiers, etc.) can be changed? Or everything will remain the same except for some personal rearrangements?

I believe that the most important change - that Putin, most likely, will replace Zubkov in the rank of the prime minister. To tell you the truth, I have always treated skeptically such a script but today it looks much more probable. I think that the majority of the ministers appointed in September of the last year after Fradkov's resignation will work on their places some time more. Probably, "administrative reform" of the governments will be continued, key figures in the cabinet are for it. However, it seems improbable to me that in the near future Russia will pass from system of strong presidential authority to system where more authority is concentrated in parliament or in the hands of the prime minister. Both Putin and íÅdvedev repeatedly declared that Russia is not ready to such structural changes.

In Your opinion, a change of a rate of Russia and integration into the democratic world community to what extend is possible in the nearest 5-10 years and whether it's possible in general? Following to the European democratic values as necessity and introduction into EU and the NATO as consequence? Or it is necessary to wait for greater isolation from Europe and migration aside Asia?

Frankly speaking, I have no idea! Meanwhile Russia is developing contrary to the theory of modernization that is well-being raises, middle class grows but there is lesser and lesser democracy and democratic institutes weaken instead of becoming stronger. Whether it is possible to turn this process back? Certainly, the majority of developing economies in due course become more pluralistic and democratic. There is no in the world large postindustrial developed economy which is not democracy, so I do not think that Russia will continue to develop in direction in which it moves
today. However it is uneasy to predict when and how the Russians will become more politically active.

What do You think, the USA will begin war against Russia during 2013-2018 or later?

It is practically impossible to imagine what will lead to a war between Russia and the USA in 2013-2018. It's my opinion. Much more probable the opposite: as the same forces threaten to the safety of our countries, in due course we shall recover from a hang-over of "cold war" and shall build closer communications in the sphere of safety.

Whether You consider that there is a probability of disintegration of Russia on several states in the nearest decade?

I believe probability of that Russia will break up to several states in the nearest decade is small. If to exclude the Chechen Republic, such script seemed to me improbable even in 1990 when Russia was much weaker and less stable. Undoubtedly, Northern Caucasus will remain the most essential threat for the Russian authorities during the following 10 years but it will hardly get separated from Russia.

Whether You exclude an opportunity of confrontation between Russia and Ukraine?

Practically on 100%. Theoretically it is impossible to exclude completely an opportunity of confrontation between Ukraine and Russia but it is difficult to image such - for many reasons. Certainly, intensity will accrue, if the Plan of preparation for membership in the NATO will be signed with Ukraine but I think that the Ukrainian - Russian disputes
will be limited to economic and political spheres.

From editorial board: I would not refer to site CC as on a source deserving any trust, - editor-in-chief of FORUM.msk Anatoly Baranov noted. - When reading materials on this site, there is such sensation that you are in a madhouse. But it -is an impression and this impression - main "achievement" of ostensibly radical Islamites ostensibly from Caucasus.

Here you are very simple example - literally one of these days site CC accused me in being the agent of FSB. It was stated in that way - the agent of FSB. However, this passage should be resulted literally:

"We shall remind that now the agent of FSB of Russia Baranov is fulfilling special tasks in Sevastopol pretending to be «political refugee», he carries out the antiUkrainian subversive activities, propagandizing connection of Crimea and all other Ukraine to Russia. No true refugee from Moscow will settle in Sevastopol as the gangs of the Russian band  "Black Sea Fleet» which can seize and drag on the ships any person continuously move about the city and the Ukrainian police cannot prove anything and get the victim from the armed Russian gangsters.

Baranov is such an odious person that even Zyuganov was compelled to expel him from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation creating conflict with Lubyanka. FORUM.msk represents a portal of a department of disinformation of FSB of Russia. Among the authors - almost all security officers, in particular some Saidov invariably duplicating lies from Lubyanka against Imarat Caucas".

It is obvious that authors of CC never were in Ukraine, especially in Sevastopol or they would know that in Ukraine there not police - but militia... As well as nobody ever heard about kidnapping of citizens of Russia by special divisions of the Black Sea fleet of the Russian Federation. How former employee of military investigation Saidov nowadays living abroad turnded out to be the security officer is also a question to strange guys from CC. However, some motives very much remind "researches" of one group of "red Putin - Followers", already several years attributing literally all conspiracy secrets of a planet to employees of FORUM.msk. It's difficult to say, who writes off - whether the American "professor - Slavist" from the American site Left.ru or "imperceptible" authors of CC. Most likely - it's done from one source.

However the feeling of a madhouse - is more important. Judging from all attributes, "radical Islamic" site CC is purposely done so that everyone who got read by chance its materials, will have a feeling that any opposition to an existing mode is presented by dangerous paranoiacs. Whom such result of long-term "work" is profitable - a question, certainly, excessive.

At the same time, by the way, if something happen with that "terrorists - chekists - mafia - killers" from FORUM.msk though unexpected "road accident", though arrest, exile or even kidnapping - nobody will be surprised. Only will shrug shoulders in a certain way - "well, you know... "

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