The Ukraine and Georgia Will Enter NATO in 2011, Belarus - Two-Three Years Later

Achievement of the compromise between President Victor Jushchenko and Prime Minister Victor Janukovich about carrying out of preschedule parliamentary elections in the Ukraine is being actively commented by political analysts. So, acting on a site of Institute of national strategy "APN.ru" political scientist Jury Shevtsov declared:

"Juschenko with the new parliament will obligatory begin to pres the Russian Federation. A theme of the Caspian raw material will be present in this pressure....

The Ukraine turns to a very active westernized force between region of Caspian Sea, EU and Russia. All large-scale events in the Russian Federation, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Transcaucasia, Iran, Southern Russia will occur with greater Ukrainian participation.... This is more dangerous event for the Russian Federation, than even "orange revolution":

- Russia entered a period of pre-election campaigns,

- unprecedented strain of relations between the Russian Federation and EU happened,

- Georgia got on its feet and turned out to be real support of "West" in Transcaucasia,

- oil-and-gas projects in region of Caspian sea, extraction of raw material in this region appeared to be an obvious big reality,

- the CIS and all other unions of the Russian Federation with former union republics are weakened as never after disintegration of the USSR,

- diplomatic preconditions for war of the USA against Iran are strong, as never,

- a threat of disintegration of the country appeared in Kirghizia, anyway, the hope for stabilization is low. New serious center of icejam, quite real "detonator" appeared in the region.

-  something that is difficult to understand take place in Turkmenia, but it's far from stability which used to be at "Turkmenbasha". 

Event just happened in the Ukraine, the political scientist continues, "is an exclusively disturbing to Russia. Even coming to power of the westernized leader in Turkmenia and the termination of deliveries of Turkmen gas to Russia would have less value. Even overlapping by Estonia and Finland opportunities to construct North-European gas main on Baltic - would be less important event, than fastening of a rate of the Ukraine for an active role in the western policy in region of Caspian sea, the East Europe and Russia".

The chapter of the Ukrainian representation of the Center of research of conflicts of Institute of problems of globalization, a member of Editorial board of "FORUM.msk", political scientist Vladimir Filin who expressed by phone from Kiev some additional reasons agrees with this point of view in general:

"Experience of last two and a half years showed that the Ukraine, still remaining the country split by a geographical principle, could not stably cope neither with the West, nor with the East. Orange coalition of January-September, 2005 meant domination of the Western Ukraine. Current government of the Party if Regions, socialists and communists is - of the Eastern Ukraine. Neither the first, nor the second sustained even a year.

I hope, after elections the balanced government representing both the West and the East will be created. As a matter of fact, compromise Juschenko-Janukovich, actually Gajduk-Akhmetov - is the first step to such a government. By itself, there couldn't be Julia Timoshenko and Alexander Turchinov. This political force is necessary to marginalized and to remove to a deep periphery of a public life. Otherwise there will be no peace in the Ukraine.

The foreign policy of the Ukraine after elections will be inevitably corrected. Firstly, it is necessary to return to the plan of Lithuanian president Valdas Adamkus about transit cartel of the Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania which would adjust deliveries of the Russian and Central Asian oil and gas to the Europe and would become a basis of the future wide integration of three countries.

Junction of Lithuania, Belarus and the Ukraine has deep historical roots. Three peoples has been living together in one state with short breaks, for 700 years. Firstly it was Grand Duchy of Lithuania, then Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, Russian Empire and the USSR.  

Within the limits of transit cartel, not formally but actually, questions of deliveries of oil and gas to the Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania and questions of transit through their territories further on the West will be rigidly coordinated, no matter how and whom it would be unpleasant in Moscow. Sure thing, there is no talking about any admission of Russia to gas-transport system of the Ukraine.

At last, the introduction of the Ukraine and then Belarus into NATO is inevitable. The Ukraine, I believe, will be accepted in NATO together with Georgia in 2011, Belarus - two-three years later. As to the presence of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, it will be terminated, I think, earlier than in 2017. These are the perspectives.

Certainly, many people in Russia won't like it. But nothing depends any more on Moscow. After the Ukrainian elections of 2004, after gas blackmail of the Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan, after deportation of ethnic Georgians, after Tallinn massacres organized by the Kremlin and paid off orgy of nashis near a building of embassy of Estonia in Moscow nobody from neighbours except for the countries of the Central Asia will not have business with Russia, which I, by the way, consider to be rather regrettable".