In the SummitDays the President Bush Will Present "Friend Vova" Really Tsar's Gift

Michael Deljagin predicts serious crisis in days of the summit. It has shared the fears with a reporter of FORUM.msk:

- Michael Gennadevich, what’s your attitude to attempts of the Georgian side to achieve "the final decision" of the South-Ossetic problem, in particular, during negotiations between Saakashvili and Bush on July, 5th in Washington?

- I haven’t had to hear from the Georgian officials such formulations which copy expressions used by hitlerites towards the Jews. However it is impossible to exclude that it truly transfers an essence of the approach of the Georgian management to national problems. As long as I remember, during war with Abkhazia Georgiahas made calculations as to the number of young Abkhazian men that should be killed so that Abkhazian people has been assimilated by the Georgians and has stopped their existence. Such experience does not pass in vain.

- Still about negotiations in Washington.

- The West and, particularly, the USAis in complicated situation. They will try to recognize Kosovo as the sovereign state as it logically finishes war against Yugoslavia, humiliates the Serbian society immersing it deeper in the frustration and is the important step forward in the work of destruction of Serbs as people.

It is possible to assume that Vukovar and some other regions will follow Kosovo and the destiny of the Serbian population of Kosovo will in the nearest future will be shared by non-Albanian inhabitants of Macedonia.

The project of creation of "the Great Albania" remains the important direction of policy of the USAin the Europe as soon as strengthening of Islamic component objectively constrains and even undermines such significant competitor of the USAas the European Union. Therefore the recognition of independence of Kosovo is very important for the USA. But it will cause response of Russia- apparently we have already let the Americans know that we shall immediately answer absolutely symmetrically: by the recognition of independence of other not recognized states. This is absolutely unacceptable for the West as well as any potential strengthening of Russiawhich revokes in its genetic memory phantom of powerful and just USSR.

The way out is simple: it is necessary to organize actions which will convincingly show to everyone including powerless comprador bureaucracy of Russia that not recognized states on the postSoviet area – is something absolutely different than Kosovo and that in their non-recognition after the recognition of Kosovo there are no "double standards".

- Is it at all possible?

- A war - is the universal political tool of the Americans, their "lifesaver".

- War??

- Certainly. To attack Abkhazia or Stepanakert is impossible for purely military reasons, Transdniestria - because of peaceful disposition of a present Moldavian leadership.

- Peaceful disposition?

- Moldovais principally neutral state, their army consists, if I am not mistaken, of 6 thousand people and the Minister of Defence in replies to a question what they need the army for after profound reflections answered: "It is beautiful".

Therefore the South Ossetiais the only one left. From the military point of view, taking into consideration training and armament of the Georgian divisions by the Americans, even in view of legendary Georgian slackness South Ossetiawill stand on its own no more than for three days. Most likely, it will be completely occupied by the Georgians in two days.

It is very convenient both for the West and for the Russian comprador bureaucracy: if Russiawill in time recognize not recognized states, it will have time to conclude with them contracts of mutual aid. Then it will be too unwisefor Georgia and the West to attack them and the Russian bureaucrats in case of an attack should protect them.

In case of the blitzkrieg neither these nor those have any difficulties. Paraphrasing Stalin, there’s no country – there’s no problem.

- And you use words "West" and "Georgia" as synonyms?

- Good God. No! Georgiais - a typical "fallen" or speaking in more distinct Russian an "degraded" state. They have no sovereignty – it’s enough to recollect that the government is financed by the American budget instead of own tax payers. The real international status of Georgiais similar to the American concentration camp in Guantanamo: it looks like the territory is in someone's jurisdiction, but actually – there are no real laws – nor good, nor bad.

Therefore present Georgian management – is a puppet of the Americans in the same way “Edinaya Russia” in Russiais - a puppet of administration of the president. It’s probable that in Washington Bush has given his Georgian puppet Saakashvili a command "Go!" in relations to the South Ossetia.

- When should we wait for the attack?

- Logically there should be a separate meeting of Bush with Putin before the summit on which they will coordinate the behaviour on the summit so that there will be no scandal and the dispute will remains within the limits of decencies and will strengthen, not weaken positions of both. Rigid tone of the western mass-media in Putin’s address and the way he has answered with a snarl in connection with ITO does such meeting objectively necessary. Up to this meeting the attack is improbable – it will be necessary to answer extremely unpleasant questions and to risk relations. And if improbable happens and Putin’s Russiawill nevertheless execute the duty on protection of lives of its citizens and with the Georgian bands trained by the Americans will happen the same thing that has happened with the Moldavian fascists near Benderyin 1992 then Bush would get into a pretty mess. Therefore the most logical moment of making a blow is just right after carrying out of a bilateral meeting - in the early morning of the first day of summit.

The Russian bureaucracy will be paralysed by necessity "to put a good face on things" and to look in a civilized way; besides "the great eight" can for form’s sake even condemn intrusion and express concern in destiny of peaceful Ossetic population being cut out. It will be enough for our compradors”.

Besides our power structures which are occupied, as one can understand, with "fronting" of everything that moves, is hardly in the condition to solve more than one problem simultaneously - and a problem number one is objectively to provide the summit. That’s why if they even will wish to do something, they will have no time for any SouthOsetia.

At last, the main thing: the beginning of intrusion on the next day after the meeting will be perceived as the proof that Putin has given his consent to it. Inertnost of Russia will be perceived as the indirect demonstration of its treachery, to which everybody will believe after Yugoslavia, Adzhariaand an uncountable number of other fineer treacheries. It will paralyse the Ossetian will, will weaken their resistance and, accordingly, will essentially facilitate a problem for the Georgians.

It will be the blitzkrieg in style of Six-day war.

And it will cripple Russia.

- In what way?

- First of all: besides South Ossetiathere is also Ossetia North. Northern Ossetianscan chuckle at the Southern ones and even regard them badly - but they consider this right as the exclusive privilege. So the senior brother can laugh and at the younger and love him at the same time - but it does not mean that it will allow somebody else to do it.

Ossetian people are a single whole. If Putin’s Russia will betray South Ossetia, especially in situation when 93% of its population are - citizens of Russia, Northern Ossetia will cease to be the most, to be exact – the only, loyal to the federal authorities republic of Northern Caucasus.

What do you think, why the tragedy of Beslan has happened in Northern Ossetia? One of the purposes is - to discredit Moscowin opinion of the Ossetins and to destroy respect for Russiaexisting in Northern Ossetia. Northern Ossetia is - a corner stone of the Russian policy in Nothern Caucasus: Nothern Caucasus will be lost without its support and trust in Russia.

Treachery of South Ossetiaby Putin’s bureaucracy will destroy this support and this trust.

Treachery of South Ossetia by Putin’s bureaucracy will kick off Russiafrom Northern Caucasus and will also begin the process of territorial decomposition, better to say - disintegration of Russia.

But also for the Russian society as a whole this treachery becomes a serious signal.

- You know, nobody wishes to die for South Ossetia.

- It is true. Moreover: in general nobody wishes to die, not for anything - and it is normal - a normal person wants to be alive.

But in South Ossetia citizens of Russialive. It is unimportant as they have found themselves there- if the Russian state does not deprive them of their citizenship, it’s as if it recognizes it and recognizes the duties on their protection. On protection of their life, property and well-being. In fact the social groupingis completely destroyed in Georgia. There is no place for mercy in such society. Southern Ossetins will not be expelled as Serbs in Kosovo – they will be simply killed as soon as one scarecely can use passes to get into Russia, even in summer.

It will turn out that Putin’s Russiaby its non-interference de facto recognizes the right of the foreign states to depopulate the Russian citizens. In the conditions when there are all resources, all opportunities and even all legislative grounds for their protection.

What do you think will be in these conditions with legitimacy of authority - personally of Putin and the power oligarchy created by him? It differs from falcification of elections; here we speak about life and death. Therefore I am afraid that system crisis in Russiacan start to be untwisted from this, probably, forthcomming treachery.

Before any elections will take place, before any successors will appear.

- Well, such imperial gift from Bush.

- What is that you don’t like? He could in fact present the vibrator – to be matched with the character of the present Russianleadership – or silk lacefor self-strangulationad exemplum of the Chinese imperators. Now, I suppose, our bosses won’t even notice that something has happenned somewhere.