Valery Alexandrov, Маxim Kalashnikov

SATSIVI FROM REPUBLICANS AND «RAT CORRIDOR»

Taking into account possible victory of neo-conservatives (in person of McCain) at elections in the USA and that they promised to get the Kremlin-power "Clan Dobbi" (Putin's) for "Faberge" are the bases to believe that Dobbi and Winnie will be compelled to start doing something. So "a rat corridor" which Dobbi team tries to avoid becomes almost inevitable for it. That, certainly, is good for Russia but - it is rather bad for "Clan Dobbi".

McCain's victory unequivocally exhausts the tops of the Russian Federation into "a rat corridor", in sequence of inevitable actions. At that the problem of Abkhazia and South Ossetia can turn events under such script.

RAT CORRIDOR: WELCOME!

McCain's victory in the USA - is unequivocally new race of arms and space programs, persecution of "elite" of the Russian Federation and sanction against it, actions of America on undermining of Russia and destruction of the rests of its influence. It's - almost guaranteed expulsion of the Russian Federation from "G8", split of the United Nations and creation pro-American and Russophobe (as well as antiChinese) Leagues of democracies. It is the American nuclear-power program and searches of substitutes for oil and gas.

In these conditions inhabitants of the Kremlin (what they don't wish at all now) get into "a rat corridor". They are not allowed to join in global elite, they are threatened to be placed on a dock and to lose their bloody-corruption properties, to be left without "Gazprom", etc. The dream of the Russian masters falls: to plunder the Russian Federation up to its full devastation and breakdown - and then to run away to live on the West in prosperity and comfort. So, the rats by being herd by kicks back, on the sinking ship - the RF.

The only way's left is to run along the notorious corridor. If you remain in the Russian Federation, you should keep and reclaim it, make it strong, not to admit its collapse in a turn of social, economic and technogenetics catastrophes. So, it is necessary to begin in the Russian Federation real and not "PR" projects of development. To inspire really broad masses, making them work and struggle: for affairs in the Russian Federation are so shabby that it would be right to speak about the tasks of scope of times of the first Soviet five-year plans. The country needs to be reclaimed simply from ruins. It is necessary really to work and on the very "top".

As soon as you will begin them (you will climb into a rat manhole even more deeply) - you will face not palatable necessities. The first - it is necessary to apply completely breakthrough technologies - cheep, labour and energy saving. For it's not possible to do anything on old technologies. The second - it's necessary to supervise projects fairly and skilfully, not admitting plundering of money. In fact on rescue of the Russian Federation from breakdown and deterioration in 2010th years from 2 up to 4 billion "c.u." is necessary. Only one problem of housing and communal services and shabby habitation is capable to break a ridge to an ox!

It will be found out then that destruction of a part of ruling elite of the Russian Federation is necessary. In fact it's so corrupted, intellectually poor and incompetent that it will start to plunder enormous means, to break projects and to sabotage introduction of breakthrough technologies which objectively reduce an opportunity to heat hands on the state budget. Upper managers from present establishment - are not worth speaking. However, it's seen even from the way so-called "national projects" (Medvedev) were worked out and then failed with a crash. As well we from the fact that present mode suffers a failure after a failure in the attempts to carry out scientific - industrial programs (in aircraft construction, in shipbuilding, in expansion of system GLONASS-M, in military - technical cooperation - the sphere of the responsibility of S.Ivanov). "Rosnanotech" already became an indecent word. Yea! Concerning the projects "Оlimpstroy" in Sochi - it's being carried out in a slipshod manner, the project of a pipeline "VSTO" - is already behind of schedule. Present governors already rush and panic. They do not know what to do.

Here you are three variants of succession of events. The first - ride a pony and to continue life "around of a gas pipe". But it's for a short while: the Russian Federation will get in severe crisis, in a turn of various accidents, in revolution with bloody change of elite and even can collapse. Even the weakened USA will be quite capable to make the project "New Russian revolution".

The second - to try to carry out "liberal reforms № 2", new 90th years. However, it will be inevitably accompanied by extradition of Putin and security officials for punishment as figures odious for the West. They will be hardly pleased. Besides the second edition of gaydar-chubajs ideology will finally beat the Russian Federation and our people completely. The ending - guaranteed bankruptcy of the RF and, probably, "Belovezhskaya Puscha - 2" half-and-half with NATO occupation.

The third variant: a part of a top in the name of self-preservation and strengthening of the Russian Federation will destroy the other part of elite having deprived them authority, property and capitals (new 1937). It will be necessary to start in the country severe struggle against corruption, to subject retrograde persons to repression, to fill up elite with competent and fair managers, to improve really life of people - and work, work, work! Indefatigably. Using each copeck. To work flat out.

We hope for the third variant. McCain's arrival to power in the USA is objectively capable to push events on a desirable trajectory for Russia. Here the Russian Federation will have to face a real challenge.

 

GEORGIA - THE GIFT FOR МcCAIN

Why there are all bases to expect McCain's victory despite of high chances and ratings of Barrack Оbama?

Here it is necessary to recite one fragment from O.Matvejchev's book "Problems of Manipulation": «During the pre-election moment huge value has such concept as agenda. I.e. information background which accompanies elections in mass-media. For example, when Reagon and Carter had equal odds, sudden crisis in Iran took place. And taking into account that foreign policy - is  Reagon's hot short, he won the elections... »

At the present moment the foreign policy is also a hot short of the senator - hawk in a dispute of G.McCain and B.Obama in the USA. Even moreover - Russia serves as his hot short! Terrible, ugly - imperial and not democratic, got under authority of officers of ominous KGB. Pressing young pro-American democracies. Hence, such international event will be created that the Russian Federation will look in bad light. Thus the opportunity to carry out discussions about the Russian Federation means McCain's victory.

What can serve as the event mentioned? War of the Russian Federation and Georgia. For Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

In case Saakashvili will decide to arrange large scandal with the Russian Federation or even will start small war closer to the presidential elections in the USA, Russia will become agenda in world media, certainly. Thus foreign policy position if the Russian Federation will get complicated WITHOUT DEPENDENCE from results of operation.

If Georgia will suppress rebellious provinces (Abkhazia and South Ossetia), the probability of intervention of Russia which will be certainly expose as aggressor interfering in internal affairs of the sovereign Georgian state is high. If Moscow will not interfere, it will undermine its reputation: look, it's - powerless and cowardly, it has not protected own citizens. Success of Saakashvili will turn out to be "loss of a person" terrible on its consequences for the Kremlin. Thus is unimportant what the Russian leaders will speak and-or do: will they simply create a scandal or actively interfere. The world public opinion will be adjusted against the Russian Federation. For the Kremlin it is fatal whirlpool from which it will not get away lost-free in reputation and policy. McCain's victory becomes rather probable. As soon as the republican hawk will win, the elite of the Russian Federation appears tired out in a rat corridor finally and irrevocably.

Here will appear a chance for patriotic movements on releasing of the Russian Federation from crisis.

So, if the Kremlin will hand over Abkhazians and the Ossetians, the Russian public opinion will condemn it. In opinion of electorate present mode will be presented as impotent. The defeat suffered from Georgia can conceive for the Supreme authority of the Russian Federation the same effect as tsarism received from defeat in the Russian-Japanese and yeltsinism - from fiasco in the Chechen campaign.

If Moscow will try to keep Abkhazia and South Ossetia, in any case it will help McCain to win elections. Who will remember position of the Kremlin after becoming the President. Victorious war for the Kremlin is impossible, even disintegration of Georgia will be unprofitable to the Kremlin, defeat of Abkhazia and South Ossetia - especially. In case of defeat of Georgia, an occasion to declare how "dictatorial" Russia presses "democratic" Georgia will appear. In a case of the slow conflict and slow escalation (taking into account "high resoluteness" of the Kremlin), the given incident will be used for a forcing of the antiRussian hysteria. Especially if the Kremlin, having decided to start war, will go squash. Only NATO "has the right" to tear away territories of the sovereign states with impunity and boldly.

So, aggravation of "the Georgian problem" is practically inevitable and it will inevitably help МcCain. A question is only, whether neo-conservatives will go on sacrifice of hundreds of Georgian soldiers, who will die in the possible conflict with Abkhazians and the Ossetians. We do not know. Closer to September - November it is necessary to expect either big scandal, or small war of Georgia against its rebellious autonomies.

Then the main thriller will begin. "A Rat Corridor". Then we should struggle furiously for the future Russia.