Michael Delyagin: "United Russia" Will Disintegrate in 2014, Europe - a Bit Later

Source: Neva24

Europe still shakes, Eurozone is on the verge of disorder and economists frighten people with terrible word "recession". Though it is simply old economic recession. Why does Europe feel itself not well? When will Russia feel the same? And, by the way, when will the power in the country be changed? Michael Delyagin - well-known economist, the political scientist, the director of Institute of Problems of Globalization - answered these and other questions of Neva24 in his exclusive interview.

- System crisis in Greece, industrial production reduction in Germany, default threat in Italy... Michael Gennadievich, explain simply as if for idiots - what's happening in Europe now?

These are universal problems. Global. Direct reason of the European shocks is in rotting of global monopolies. Actually Europe endures now two crises. The first crisis - general crisis of social pension system. The system invests in the future of pensioners, that is into the markets which don't give incomes. But it is a problem of the developed, northern part of Europe.

- What about the second crisis? "The Greek question"?

- Quite right, the problem of southern part. Joining of these countries the European Union had colonial character. Corporations of northern countries bought everything what they needed, all the rest got closed. In return southern countries received considerable social guarantees. But when you don't have markets to work for, there's nothing to support social guarantees in conditions of crisis.

- That what we observe on example of Greece which now owes to all... How does this situation threaten to Russia?

- Just recently we've seen what consequences it has to Russia. The threat of default in Greece - by the way, it hasn't disappeared, all have just got accustomed to it - caused ambiguity as regards the markets. It led to reduction of interbank crediting and shortage of liquidity. Accordingly, out of a blue sky we received falling of stock market and rouble falling. All this in conditions of full passivity and state inactivity. It happened not even because of bankruptcy, but simply because of the threat of bankruptcy of not the biggest European country.

- How could we cut ourselves off? How to make so that some в-list Greece doesn't shake a boat?

- It's very simply. To change motivation of the Russian state. To take the book under the name "Constitution" into the hands and to read in it that the Russian state should serve not to the interests of global business, but to the interests of people of Russia. Tax money should go not to support strategic competitors in the name of the European countries, but for modernization of own economy. It's necessary to strengthen protectionism to a level which exists in the European Union. We should enter the tax on the output of a capital.

- If there are examples when such tax helped?

- Yes. Authoritative economy of Malaysia and superliberal economy of Chile equally endured crisis only at the expense of it.

- What about Russia?

- Obviously, joining the WTO is much more important for the Russian state, than solving of essential problems...

- If there are any variants? If left alternative is possible?

- Left alternative in Russia is impossible due to the character of our left movement. On the one hand, there is management of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation which is even more disciplined, than "United Russia" and LDPR. On the other hand, there are a lot of petty groups which are at little wars with each other...

- What about liberalism?

- It depends on what liberalism you mean... There's a lot of it in social and economic sphere and it's especially destructive there. Global uber alles. It also exists from the point of view of human rights, but it's not so necessary in its pure state.

- What is necessary then?

- Actually certain synthesis has already developed among people. There's consent in all questions, but for the national one and there is no big difference here between representatives of liberal, left or patriotic tendency. But in political field these three projects are artificially being parted. All efforts are directed on that no unification happen. Because if it occurs, the power will be changed automatically.

- But after all sooner or later all will fail. When?

- I am absolutely sure that not in 2012. Growth of social intensity will begin since autumn, 2012, but it will not become the reason of change of power. 2014 or a bit later is most probable year. The state all the same has large supply of durability. There is interesting scenario which was described to me by people from "United Russia". They are very much afraid that the power will transform "United Popular Front" into the party and will make it new party in power. While "United Russia" will be liquidated as a false target, it will be thrown under the bus and "United Popular Front" will receive its 65%. It, of course, will reduce social intensity and will delay all for a short time... But the problem of the power is not in decorations around.

- What's its problem?

- It is very simple. Too many people in the state sincerely consider that the main aim of the state - not building public blessing, but their personal enrichment. It is difficult diagnosis. Death-doing.

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